Grim outlook for fire-struck nation

WHILE firefighters are celebrating a reprieve from some of the most devastating infernos in Australian history, there is foreboding about what’s to come with a grim long-range forecast.

Fire season typically peaks with the so-called February Dragon – the hottest and driest month when the nation has been hit by the likes of Black Saturday and Ash Wednesday.

But it’s only early January and 23 people have already died this season, six are missing and at least 1 500 homes destroyed, and 6 million hectares of land razed.

Meanwhile, the Bureau of Meteorology’s long-range climate outlook predicts above average temperatures and below average rainfall – horrible fire conditions – for much of the east up until at least the end of March.

Weatherzone meteorologist Tom Hough said: “Warmer than average and drier than average is the trend. Based on the climate outlooks, it doesn’t look like we’re going to see any significant rainfall.”

Virtually the entire east coast has a greater than 80% chance of topping the median temperature. New South Wales and Queensland are expected to experience below average or average rainfall. Another expert has warned of the risks of floods should unpredictable drought-breaking rain hit.

Monash University emeritus professor Neville Nicholls says big deluges tend to hit between January and May. “The flood risk is exacerbated by the bare soil and lack of vegetation caused by drought, and by bushfires that destroy forest and grassland.” |