Analysts paint bleak picture of SA’s outlook
POLITICAL and economic forecasters say they do not have high hopes for South Africa this year, unless the government introduces far-reaching reforms in governance and bold spending cuts in the economy.
Looking ahead to what 2022 holds for the country, chief economist of the Efficient Group, Dawie Roodt, said he does not see a good year ahead.
“We’re in serious trouble. The government is spending too much and must cut back, but it can’t because there are too many people depending on the state for income.”
He said he understood the necessity of greater public spending, especially two years ahead of a general election, but the country could not afford it.
Roodt said that in terms of growth statistics, 2022 is going to be weaker than 2021, which was really only good because 2020 was so bad that the country started from a very low base. He forecasts weaker growth of about 1.8% for this year.
Political analyst Shingai Mutizwa-Mangiza said President Cyril Ramaphosa is now effectively at the halfway mark of his administration and people need to see some tangible results and a focus on clear, crisp policy directions.
“The most pressing issue is how they will begin to rebuild the economy and instil confidence in voters that they can still govern.”
As for the opposition, he said it was in their interest to proffer real alternatives – and not just object to and protest against everything the government says and does.
Political economist Daniel Silke said 2022 would be exceedingly difficult for the president as he will have to spend most of the year defending his position ahead of the ANC’s elective conference in December. He said he’d be pleasantly surprised if there were any major reforms this year, but he was not going to hold his breath.
Deputy president of the Cape Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Derryn Brigg, said the private sector’s new year wish was that the government heeded the advice of the International Monetary Fund to shrink the public sector and free up the economy.