Questions over nation’s long-term goals after World Cup
MIGRANT labourers worked through the night near the World Cup clock that yesterday started counting down 200 days to kick-off, with hosts Qatar facing mounting questions over costs and conditions for fans.
Eight shiny, air-conditioned stadiums are ready for the tournament’s start on November 21, but every night the army of South Asian workers who underpin Qatar’s energy-rich economy swarm over unfinished roads and building sites around Doha.
Dozens of gigantic cranes tower over the capital’s skyscrapers while organisers juggle with the dilemma of welcoming an estimated 1.4 million fans wanting entertainment and alcohol in the conservative Islamic state.
Qatar has faced frequent questions about human rights, including for the tens of thousands of migrant workers who built infrastructure around the World Cup. The country says it has cracked down on abusive practices and introduced reforms, including a minimum wage.
Meanwhile, tucked behind Doha’s $300-million (about R4.7-billion) Lusail Boulevard, where construction workers are toiling to transform desert into a ChampsÉlysées-inspired commercial thoroughfare with a canal for shoppers who arrive by boat, alfresco dining with a view of dancing fountains and a luxury wing with giant Christian Dior and Louis Vuitton outlets.
Gas-rich Qatar, in an attempt to emulate the transformation of Gulf rivals Dubai and Abu Dhabi, has spent at least $229bn on infrastructure in the 11 years since winning the bid to host the World Cup.
Much of the work was planned independently as Qatar pushes to diversify its non-energy economy, with ambitions to become a regional business hub and to triple tourist numbers to 6 million a year by 2030, a government official told Reuters.
But analysts and academics are not convinced that the big spending from its gas revenues will mean Qatar can fulfil its economic dream once the 28-day tournament ends.
Qatar faces stiff competition from regional rivals Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which offer larger and more established markets and greater variety for tourists.
But that has not deterred the tiny, cash-rich state as it spends its way on to the global stage. At the peak of its building boom in 2016, Qatar spent 18% of GDP on infrastructure, dwarfing the sums spent on staging previous World Cups.
South Africa shelled out $3.3bn on infrastructure to prepare for the event in 2010, while Brazil made $11.6bn worth of infrastructure investments to host it in 2014, even though half of the projects promised were never built.
Already home to the region’s largest US military base and the Arab region’s most influential TV channel, Qatar has splurged not just on soccer stadiums but on roads, a metro network, a deep-water port and an expanded airport. But some fear much of the new build may sit idle after the tournament, with an expected exodus of expatriates, a possible drop-off in demand and a slowdown in Qatar’s non-energy economy.
Doha sees the first soccer World Cup to be held in the Middle East as a “marketing springboard” for visitors, the government official told Reuters.
In South Africa, officials have said the 2010 World Cup kicked off a tourism boom and visitor numbers rose steadily to a pre-pandemic high of 10.2 million in 2019, when tourism contributed close to 10% of GDP.
Government-backed Qatari companies and private investors have ploughed billions into commercial ventures like shopping malls, hotels, housing estates and theme parks.
“It’s the build-it-and-they-willcome philosophy of Gulf development,” said Karen Young, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington.
So far, the state-sponsored construction boom has driven Qatar’s non-energy economy, with the sector comprising around 12% of GDP, according to the Qatari Planning and Statistics Authority’s Qatar Economic Outlook for 2021-2023.
Construction also employs almost half Qatar’s labour force, which helped boost the population by around 67% since 2011.
However, as the dominance of construction comes to an end, the non-energy economy is set to slow, despite a push for diversification aimed at building self-sufficiency.
Real estate agents and analysts say demand for housing is hot and expected to heat up even more in the lead-up to the World Cup because many of the new apartments and villas have been set aside to accommodate fans in at least 64000 rooms across the country. But there are fears that empty units will flood the market when they are released after the tournament.
As one of the world’s biggest liquefied natural gas (LNG) producers, Qatar has become one of the wealthiest nations per capita with a population of around 2.8 million, of which 85% are expatriates.
But in the years after the tournament, Qatar’s population is expected to decline by about 1.2% year-on-year and shrink to 2.5 million by 2027, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts.
Many South Asian construction workers, whose treatment and pay have been in the spotlight, are also expected to leave.
Alexis Antoniades, an economics professor at Georgetown University’s campus in Qatar, says it also stands to lose highly paid engineers, designers, supervisors and other whitecollar professionals working on projects now nearing their end.
While the IMF projects Qatar’s economy will grow by 3.4% this year, thanks to a boost from World Cuplinked activity, its growth is forecast to slow to 1.7% in 2024.
Even if investment in the nonenergy economy does not deliver for Qatar, however, gas is set to keep it pumping. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has exacerbated a global energy crisis, boosting demand for its LNG.
The IMF is forecasting Qatari growth to rise to 3.8% in 2027, when new LNG production comes online.
“We expected the economy to slow down ... But now, it is Qatar’s time to open-up to the world, to attract talent, attract companies, attract foreign direct investment and attract tourists,” he said. |