Report alerts to big teacher retirement wave dilemma

SOUTH Africa’s education system found itself in a dilemma as a teacher retirement wave was approaching, but provinces were not hiring at the rate universities were producing.

This is according to the first in a series of reports from a new research project, the Teacher Demographic Dividend project.

The three-year project is being conducted by a team of over 20 researchers at Stellenbosch University’s Research on Socioeconomic Policy (Resep) unit, funded by Allan & Gill Gray Philanthropy and the FEM Education Foundation.

It is headed by Professor Nic Spaull and Professor Servaas van der Berg, and will run until 2024.

It aims to study the incoming wave of teacher retirements.

So far they found that nearly half of South Africa’s publicly-employed teachers (49%) were aged 50+ in 2021, leading to an approaching wave of teacher retirements.

“Altogether, 49% of teachers are 50 years or older, and 25% at least 55 years old.

“Thus a large retirement wave is inevitable.

“Projections indicate that leavers in this age group will peak at around 2029, at almost 17 300. After 2030, the number will again decline back to about 8 700 in 2040,” the report stated.

In 2021 there were 24 456 annual “joiners” in the public system, and by 2030 this would have to increase to between 31 741 and 42 109, depending on policy directives related to teacher headcount, teacher-to-pupil ratios, and class sizes.

“Since 2016 universities have increased teacher supply, but provinces have not increased hiring, leading to larger LE ratios over time.

“No-fee and rural schools will be affected the most by the growing gap between increasing teacher retirements and stagnant hiring,” the report stated.

Molo Songololo director Patric Solomons said: “More than half of our schools are under-resourced and overcrowded. It will be exacerbated by all these teachers retiring and some will retire earlier than usual because of factors like stress and violence at school. In terms of remuneration those in the lower category have to work, in many cases in dangerous work environments, and deal with acts of violence.

“The government needs to make sure improving education becomes a priority project at all levels. Unfortunately, there is a lot of politics to and fro, about who is supposed to do what. We do not have strong ethical leadership and ministers, MECs and director-generals are not held accountable when these things happen.”