China researching timetable for phasing out production and sale of fossil-fuel vehicles

CHINA has signalled its intention to join countries such as Britain and France and ban the manufacture and sale of cars running on traditional fossil fuels.

At an automobile forum over the weekend, Xin Guobin, China’s vice-minister of industry and information technology, disclosed that the country had started research on a timetable to phase out the production and sale of fossil-fuel cars.

Xin did not provide any details of the time frame.

In July, French Ecology Minister Nicolas Hulot announced that France would end the sale of petrol and diesel vehicles by 2040 as part of the country’s plan to meet its targets under the Paris climate accord.

The same month, the British government followed suit with a similar plan, eyeing 2040 as the deadline for stopping the sale of new fossil-fuel cars. Switch Analysts say although there is little doubt that new energy vehicles (NEVs) will eventually prevail, it remains to be seen how long the switch will take, and will depend largely on improvements in infra- structure and technology, as well as how fast carmakers can adapt.

In China, the world’s largest car market, the government is a staunch supporter of NEVs, seeing them as a way to ease pressure on the environment.

A slew of measures – including tax exemptions, discounts for car purchases and an order for government organisations to buy more NEVs – is in place to encourage the use of NEVs.

Last year, China sold 507 000 NEVs, an increase of 53 percent year-on-year. Sales of pure electric vehicles surged 65.1 percent yearon-year to 409 000, accounting for 80 percent of NEV sales.

An earlier guideline by the State Council said China would build The government is a staunch supporter of NEVs, seeing them as a way to ease pressure on the environment. more than 12 000 charging stations before 2020 to fulfil the demands of more than 5 million NEVs.

Zhong Shi, an industry analyst, said China might adopt a deadline earlier than 2040, because it would be easier for the country to make the change given its relatively short history of car use.

Proposing a date later than 2040 would result in China being left behind, a scenario the government was seeking to avoid, Zhong said.

According to the Society of Automotive Engineers of China, the share of NEV sales should reach more than 40 percent of total car sales by 2030.

Qiu Kaijun, an industry observer, holds a different view, believing it will take much longer for China to make the switch, because of its massive market.

China might adopt a differentiated timetable, with big cities such as Beijing and Shanghai achieving the goal as early as 2030 and less developed regions later, he said.

It was only a matter of time before traditional fossil-fuel cars faded into history, Qiu said. Electric Carmaker Volvo said in July that all its models would have an electric motor from 2019.

GM, Volkswagen, Ford, Daimler and many other carmakers also have plans to beef up the production of NEVs.

China leads the world in NEV development. Chinese car companies, including BYD, BAIC and Geely, ranked among the top brands worldwide in terms of electric car sales last year, according to the China Passenger Car Association.

International co-operation NEV production is gearing up.

China has pledged to cut its carbon emissions per unit of gross domestic product by 60 percent to 65 percent from 2005 levels by 2030 and raise the share of non-fossilenergy use in total consumption to about 20 percent.