Fair election in DRC crucial – but improbable

LONG before the Democratic Republic of Congo’s presidential poll on December 23, conditions appear to be stacked against opposition candidates, in favour of outgoing President Joseph Kabila’s handpicked candidate, Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, the former interior minister.

Shadary is the secretary of the People’s Party for Reconstruction and Democracy, Kabila’s ruling party. Opposition parties risk splitting the vote, and so handing power to Shadary, unless they join forces behind one candidate.

Three opposition leaders – former governor of Katanga province Moise Katumbi, former vice-president JeanPierre Bemba and Union for Democracy and Social Progress leader Felix Tshisekedi – have ambitions to challenge Shadary, Kabila’s proxy for the presidency. Like typical African elections, this is a winner-takes-all one. Whoever wins will control every aspect of the state. Losers will probably be excluded from all spheres of the government. The phenomenon makes elections deadly affairs.

Kabila has been at the helm since 2001 when he took over from his father, Laurent Kabila, who was assassinated by his bodyguard. He was supposed to stand down in 2016, after his second elected term. The constitution puts a two-term limit on leaders. He tried to stay on for a third term but mass protests blocked such attempts.

He has since opted to seek a pliant successor, Shadary, who would presumably protect his political and business interests beyond his own presidency.

On December 31, 2016, Kabila signed the Saint Sylvester agreement, with opposition parties, civil society and international organisations which stipulates that the government will improve conditions for free and fair elections. He has not implemented key elements of the agreement. Some opposition party leaders and activists were forced into exile because of harassment.

Civil society organisations, especially those linked to the Catholic Church, have played an instrumental role in providing public services, keeping the peace and defending democratic rights in the face of a failed state and an oppressive governing regime. Youth activists have used social media to organise protests, pass on information about rights abuses and conflicts. The independent media have played a key role in espousing rights abuses.

Kabila has made it difficult for serious opponents to challenge him or his handpicked successor. He repeatedly blocked Katumbi’s return from exile.

Bemba returned on time to lodge his candidacy after being acquitted of war crimes by the International Criminal Court in The Hague in June this year.

Zeid Ra’ad al-Hussein, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, has warned that violations of human rights was placing serious doubts on the election’s credibility. Kabila has rejected offers of logistical support from the UN.

A poorly executed election would favour the Kabila candidate. The collapse of the central state has caused armed groups to run parts of the country as their fiefdom, unleashed pandemics such as Ebola outbreaks and caused forced migration of displaced Congolese to neighbouring countries. Last month, the government announced a new outbreak of Ebola.

Transparency International ranked the DRC 156 out of 175 in its 2017 Corruption Perceptions Index. In June this year, Emmanuel Luzolo Bambi, an adviser to Kabila, said the DRC lost $15 billion to corruption and mismanagement every year. The amount is three times the country’s annual $5bn budget.

Rape of women is routinely used as a weapon by warring factions. In 2010, Margot Wallström, the UN secretary-general’s special representative on sexual violence in conflict, told the UN Security Council the DRC was the “rape capital of the world”.

The DRC has large deposits of cobalt, copper, gold, uranium and coltan. A UN Security Council panel of experts reported in 2001 that Burundi, Rwanda and Uganda were making lucrative profits out of the war in the DRC. The UN report also listed foreign companies that were looting the country.

Since 1996, Uganda became a significant gold exporter even though the country has no known gold deposits; gold was being siphoned out of the DRC. Similarly, Rwanda increased its gold exports almost 20 times since 1995, with gold coming again from the DRC.

The UN warned that unless action was taken against neighbouring countries and foreign companies that used the cover of the war to loot the country, it was unlikely that the violence in the DRC would stop.

A crisis in the DRC will destabilise most of central and southern Africa, with a rise in forced migrations to neighbouring countries. Many neighbouring African countries are not interested in intervening because the DRC conflict would not benefit them.

Regional African institutions, such as the AU and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) have largely been paralysed. Most of their leaders secured power undemocratically, stay on longer than their presidential terms allows and repress opposition groups. They are unenthusiastic about condemning Kabila for fear of facing scrutiny themselves.

The AU and SADC must act against Rwanda, Uganda and Burundi for helping fuel the DRC conflict. Western governments must act against their companies complicit in looting the DRC.

For the stability of the DRC, whoever wins the election must include the losers in a government of national unity or risk the country spiralling into civil war, more epidemic outbreaks and further economic decline.

Kabila has made it difficult for opponents to challenge him

Gumede is the chairperson of the Democracy Works Foundation, and author of South Africa in BRICS (Tafelberg)