If you see a chance take it

IN 1993 the Melbourne Cup changed forever.

Vintage Crop became the first international winner and Joseph O'Brien was born.

In another 25 years time the latter may be viewed as revolutionary in the Cup's history as Vintage Crop is currently.

Dermot Weld opened Europe’s eyes to the possibility of winning the great race, but O'Brien jnr has shown them an almost unbeatable formula.

With his first runner in the race last year, Joseph lifted the Cup with European three-yearold Rekindling, who had run in the Derby and finished fourth in the St Leger.

This year’s winner Cross Counter had a similar profile, having landed the Gordon Stakes and finished second in the Great Voltigeur during his Classic season.

The Classic generation get a generous weight-for-age allowance here that would put them too far down the handicap to get in but for a quirk of the Cup that means the handicap is taken off the benchmark before the weight-for-age is taken into account.

As Hughie Morrison, whose Marmelo finished second, said: “Weight for age makes a lot of difference”, while Aidan O’Brien's travelling head lad TJ Comerford said: “Maybe it’s a race to bring a three-year-old over for. There was a threeyear-old winner and our lad (Rostropovich) ran well from a bad draw.”

Indeed, even Appleby gave O’Brien jnr a tip of the cap. “Credit to Joseph and his team last year, they highlighted that three-year-old weight allowance. Joseph and his team did an amazing job and it changed our view on what we might need to bring down.

“It’s an allowance for a reason as he’s a younger horse taking on his elders and in a race like this you generally need the experience. But when you've got a class three-yearold he can outweigh the inexperience with his class.”

The holy grail might of course be a three-year-old Classic filly, one capable of running in races like the Oaks and St Leger.

Think Simple Verse. With the three-year-old allowance and a fillies’ concession they could get into the race off a featherweight. Chief handicapper Greg Carpenter suggested that should such horses begin to dominate he would perhaps have to reassess them, but he cannot upgrade their rating on form simply because they are three.

In effect it would require a total re-evaluation of the weight-for-age scale, particularly when pertaining to European three-year-olds just two months shy of their fourth birthday visiting Australia.