SQUANDERING THE WORLD CARBON BUDGET

THE WORLD has lost another year in the quest to finally start reducing its carbon emissions, which scientists say is crucial to avoid the steadily worsening impacts of climate change.

Instead of embarking on a longawaited decline, global greenhouse gas emissions are projected to grow slightly during this year, reaching another record high, according to a new analysis published on Tuesday.

Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry totalled 36.8 billion tons, according to an estimate from the Global Carbon Project, a consortium of academics who produce the figures annually. That represents a 0.6% increase from last year, which had stood as the record.

“We’re blowing through our carbon budget the way an addict blows through cash,” Rob Jackson, a professor of Earth science at Stanford University and chair of the Global Carbon Project, said. “It’s troubling, because carbon dioxide pollution is higher than it’s ever been.”

Global emissions have risen for three-consecutive years, at a time when they should be starting to drop sharply if the world is to meet the goals of the Paris climate agreement.

The news of growing greenhouse gas emissions is the latest in a drumbeat of negative findings that come as world leaders gather in Madrid for an annual climate change conference, where they face mounting pressure to alter the trajectory.

Last week, a bleak report from the UN Environment Programme detailed how off-target the world remains in its collective goal of limiting Earth’s warming. It said global emissions must fall by nearly 8% a year over the next decade to stay in line with the goal of limiting warming to 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels.

A slower pace of cuts of about 3% a year would keep the world on track for about 2ºC of warming by 2100 – a level of warming that would have severe consequences, such as the death of nearly all coral reefs and the possible destabilisation of ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica.

The globe has warmed about 1.1ºC since the late 19th century, according to separate findings published on Tuesday by the World Meteorological Organisation.

The WMO also found that this year “concludes a decade of exceptional global heat, retreating ice and record sea levels driven by greenhouse gases from human activities”.

This year is on pace to be the secondor third-warmest on record.

Tuesday’s report from the Global Carbon Project, published in several journals, including Environmental Research Letters, makes clear that the transformation necessary to rapidly cut greenhouse gas emissions is nowhere in sight.

The Global Carbon Project found, meanwhile, that the burning of natural gas is booming, growing by an additional 2.6% this year after strong growth last year.

Petroleum use in automobiles, planes and other vehicles continues to increase across the globe.

The trends are being driven by multiple factors, the researchers said, including growing supplies of liquefied natural gas; increasing vehicle ownership, especially in India and China; and global economic growth, which traditionally creates greater energy demand.

While some of that gas will be absorbed into the oceans and some will be consumed by plants, much will linger in the atmosphere, strengthening the greenhouse effect.

Jackson said a faster shift toward cleaner energy could create new jobs, improve national security and have measurable public health benefits.

But he also said it would leave a better legacy than the one of inactions on climate change that has defined recent years.

“It’s another lost year, another lost decade,” he said of the trend of rising global emissions.

“I don’t want to belittle the important things that have happened and are happening, but they are not enough. People will look back at us and wonder, ‘What were you doing’.”

Mooney and Dennis cover climate change, energy, environment and public health issues for The Washington Post.