40 000 may die by November – experts
A TEAM of scientific experts has said South Africa could record between 40 000 and 45 000 deaths from Covid-19 – and a million infections – by November, leaving the country without enough ICU beds.
The experts were speaking during a webinar co-ordinated by Health Minister Zweli Mkhize on Tuesday night.
UCT’s Dr Sheetal Silal, who led the presentation, said: “By June 1, under the most optimistic scenario, detected cases are expected to... 24 781 depending on availability of testing ....
“The figures (of fatalities) were based on a pessimistic projection, and even these projections may change as interventions come into play and (with the) the transition to different levels of the lockdown in the future.
“Not all Covid-19 infections will be detected. Infected individuals who are asymptomatic are not likely to seek out a diagnostic test. Additionally, with laboratory and testing constraints, it is not always possible to test all individuals who seek laboratory confirmation.”
Falling under the umbrella of the SA Covid-19 Modelling Consortium, the experts are a group of researchers from academic, non-profit, and government institutions across South Africa, who advise the government on projections and modelling in a bid to inform policy and regulations.
The group is co-ordinated by the National Institute for Communicable Diseases, on behalf of the national Department of Health.
Commenting on the scenarios during a digital news conference yesterday, Premier Alan Winde said: “These scenarios enable us, here in the Western Cape, to go back into our discussions on where we are with our scenarios and to see what our projections are. We will continue to do this.
“Last week, we had some specialists in to interrogate our scenarios and by next week we should be in a position to reveal what our scenario predicts and whether Tuesday night’s figures force us to adjust our scenario or whether they confirm that we are on the same track.
“Global data, and our local experience tells us, that some 90% of people will not require hospitalisation, only experiencing a mild illness. However, some 10% require hospitalisation, and around 1.8% will die. But remember – and this is important to bear in mind – this also means that 98.2% will survive this.
“Of those that die, 96% have an underlying health condition such as HIV, diabetes, hypertension and tuberculosis. We need to protect these people, and those of more advanced age, in the weeks ahead as the virus spreads and we move up the curve, towards the peak.
“Indeed, our risk projections for the general population in the Western Cape, based on available data, indicates that those who are older (over 55), and those who have one or more comorbidities, are at the highest risk. This is where we must focus our attention in the weeks ahead.”
Head of the provincial health department, Dr Keith Cloete said:
“The current status of the epidemic in the Cape metro is a rapidly increasing epidemic with increases in hospitalisation and deaths – we are on the upward part of the curve, which is the nature of the pandemic.
“Testing and lab capacity is under severe strain. Facilities to isolate and quarantine off-site are being scaled up, but the limits of the available capacity will ultimately be exceeded. There are a large number of undetected cases, which will continue to grow because of the limitations in testing.
“The ability to continue with individual case-detection and contact tracing is being stretched by the sheer number of new positive cases.”