Get set for slower play, fewer goals in EPL

THE Premier League will return on June 17 after three months away. Ninety-two games, all behind closed doors, all on TV.

What on earth will it look like? Those who have watched the Bundesliga’s return in Germany will know that the spectacle is much different.

No fans, no atmosphere, weird celebrations and substitutes wearing masks. But will the game have changed too?

Here we take a look at what has changed since the Bundesliga came back and what we can expect once the Premier League returns.

HOME ADVANTAGE

If the Premier League get their wish and matches are played home and away, then clubs can forget about using the familiar surroundings to their benefit.

A study of all games played behind closed doors in Europe since the Second World War showed that empty stands all but wipe out home advantage.

If the Bundesliga is anything to go by, the home team is now at a disadvantage.

Before the break, home teams won 43 percent of matches. Since the restart there have only been seven home wins out of 32 games – 21 percent. Away sides have won 48 percent of matches compared to 35 percent before the break.

Aston Villa have more home games left than any other team in the Premier League bottom six, with six out of their final 10 games at Villa Park.

Suddenly, that does not look like much of an advantage.

FEWER GOALS

The Bundesliga is the highest-scoring division of Europe’s big five leagues, averaging 3.25 goals per game before the break.

However, since the restart that has dropped to less than three. There are 2.6 fewer shots per game.

There are not as many late goals, either.

There was a goal in the last 10 minutes in every 1.7 Bundesliga games before football stopped. Since, there has been one in every three.

Perhaps without the fans to roar you on – or the match fitness to keep you going – there is not as much left in the tank.

A SLOWER GAME?

The Bundesliga’s return has also led to a slower, less intense game.

One worry about games played behind closed doors is that they could feel more like friendlies.

The intensity of the Premier League is one of the reasons why it attracts such a global audience.

Since the Bundesliga returned, there have been fewer shots and goals but there have been more passes: nearly 18 more per game, although that figure was at 33 before the latest round of fixtures, so perhaps players and teams are slowly getting back up to speed.

There have been more passes in teams’ own half of the pitch.

Across the first three game-weeks (excluding Saturday night’s Bayern Munich game) teams played nearly 30 more passes per game inside their own half than before the break.

There are fewer tackles, too.

REFS HIT HOME TEAMS

Studies have long shown that referees are influenced subconsciously by home crowds.

The Bundesliga’s return has only backed that up.

Before the break, home teams received a red card once in every 19 games, while away teams had a player sent off once in every eight matches.

Since the restart, home sides have had four red cards compared to three for away teams.

Home teams are being shown more yellow cards than before and away teams fewer.

There goes that home advantage again.