Chad’s ‘covert coup’ and its implications

THE RECENT spate of military coups in Africa, which were intended to be transitional, might be a risk for democracy in the long term.

There might be a short-term need to maintain security, but the military may not necessarily be a credible partner to build democratic governance. Military intervention could mean that people might continue to be in a state of stagnant democracy.

Chad is the most recent example of this. Soon after the death of President Idriss Deby, the military swiftly took over power. They immediately installed his 37-year-old son Mahamat, a military commander, as interim president. He will lead an 18-month transitional military council. Parliament and the government have been dissolved and the constitution has been suspended.

Upon the death of the president, the constitution stipulates that his duties should be provisionally exercised by the president of the National Assembly. The military has ignored the arrangement. By suspending the constitution it has effectively overseen an unconstitutional change of government.

The military has stated that the dissolution of Parliament and suspension of the constitution are provisional and intended to maintain stability. And to ensure a peaceful and democratic transition of power. The arguments are not convincing.

First, the military government has created an atmosphere of fear. It has banned demonstrations and dispersed protesters using disproportionate and repressive force.

Second, it has refused calls for a ceasefire and dialogue with the Front for Change and Concord in Chad, the rebel group alleged to be responsible for Derby’s death. This goes against the tenets of a peaceful transition to civilian government, which should consider an inclusive dialogue with all stakeholders.

Third, the military junta has appointed a civilian prime minister, Albert Padacke. The new prime minister was the runner-up during the April 11 presidential elections. He is seen as a Deby ally and is, therefore, not a credible civilian stakeholder.

But Chad isn’t the first African country to go down this path. Recent examples of military coups include Mali in August last year, Sudan in April 2019, Zimbabwe in 2017, and Egypt in February 2011 and July 2013. In the cases, transitional military councils were established to oversee smooth and peaceful democratic transitions.

They took over under the guise of restoring democratic governance by maintaining order and temporarily overseeing political transitions. But early signs are not promising.

In Mali, after pressure from regional bodies like the Economic Community of West African States, the transitional military council was dissolved and a civilian-led transitional government was put in place.

But the country’s civilian vice-president, Assimi Goita, is the military commander who led the coup. Other cabinet ministers are also military commanders. The military wields significant influence over a so-called transitional civilian government.

Sudan also presents a tenuous case. Since the ouster of former president Omar al-Bashir, some progress has been made to appoint a more inclusive cabinet. But the country’s transitional agreement also secures the military’s dominant role.

Egypt and Zimbabwe, which have completed their transitions from popular uprisings to civilian leadership, have shown how much influence the military can wield over democratically elected governments. In both cases, the military stepped in under the guise of restoring democratic governance following popular uprisings. Zimbabwe transitioned from military to civilian rule. However, the military is embedded in the government. Egypt remains a military state.

Military interventions may be deemed necessary in the short term to maintain peace and security. But, they are inherently unconstitutional. The task of democratic development and entrenchment in Africa is enormous. There are no quick fixes. The wave of military interventions or “covert coups” can be viewed as a movement to protect and support democracy in Africa. But it remains to be seen whether the military is a credible partner to achieve the objective.