Will Ramaphosa learn from painful May Day rally?
WHAT happened at the May Rally this past weekend shows President Ramaphosa is not going to have an easy journey back to Luthuli House at the ANC's December national conference. He is the first president of the ANC to go into his second elections with polling numbers below water.
Former presidents, Thabo Mbeki and Jacob Zuma, did not have similar challenges going into their second terms. What does this say about Ramaphosa's leadership and his faction within the ANC and the Alliance partners?
The May Rally in Rustenburg was an own goal by the Ramaphosa faction. It is alleged Zingiswa Losi, who is an ANC member, and the president of Cosatu – is part of the faction that is supporting Ramaphosa's second term bid. Losi lost out to Jessie Duarte for the position of deputy secretary-general at the 2017 national conference, during which she ran under the Ramaphosa slate.
Cosatu did not do their calculations properly when they decided to host the May Day Rally in Rustenburg. Sibanye Stillwater mineworkers have been on strike for a while, and it was not a good idea to take the May Day Rally there when they have already lost over a billion rand in wages with no end in sight for the negotiations.
Let us remember a protracted negotiation led to the Marikana Massacre 10 years ago. We all know Ramaphosa has not visited Marikana since that horrific incident. This may be evidence enough that Ramaphosa's faction is not grounded and they do not have a strategy going to the ANC conference in December to secure his second term.
It is alleged even Limpopo, KwaZulu-Natal, Eastern Cape and Mpumalanga might not be behind the Ramaphosa faction. If you know and understand the ANC, you would know four provinces could change things for Ramaphosa. His only option at the present moment is to try and strike some deals quickly. He needs someone to call the roll and make sure his numbers are adding up.
The Western and Northern Cape typically do not bring big delegations to the national conference, while Gauteng is always divided. The Free State and North West have not yet hosted their regional and provincial conferences, so their hand is not really clear. That leaves Ramaphosa guessing about his numbers. Not a good thing going into December.
He defeated Dr Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma in Nasrec by 179 votes. In other words, he was just first past the post, thanks to a late switch by current deputy president David Mabuza that delivered the numbers for Ramaphosa.
With not that many slates having already come out clearly in favour of Ramaphosa, there is an indication he has failed to unite the two slates of the party, and has failed to convince some delegates to join his ideological faction. Some might argue Ramaphosa is in charge of the National Executive Committee, but the thermometer shows that room temperature is not really in his favour. In addition, the battlefield is on the ground and not in the NEC.
For you to win any conference, you need to have ground forces that can even give you intelligence on what is happening with the branches and who is in charge in which branch. When you do not have the best lieutenants, it becomes difficult to rally support. Ground forces interact with branches on a regular basis. What happened at the May Day Rally could have been avoided if the Ramaphosa faction was grounded and in touch with the people on a regular basis.
The ground is clearly shifting, and more away from than towards Ramaphosa, either because his lieutenants do not seem to be politically grounded in the politics of the ANC or because some people think it is time to try something else. Some people perceived to be pro-Ramaphosa may just be there for their own interests, and will not hesitate to jump ship at short notice.
The policy conference is not going to be easy for the Ramaphosa faction, and it would be in their best interest to jump straight into the National General Council, which is a constitutional requirement-according rule 10.6 of the ANC's Constitution. Policy Conference is not a constitutional requirement. If one were to hold, Ramaphosa would have to deliver a political report, which may just be the opportunity that some branches are waiting for to pounce.
It is going to be an interesting few months. Strap on!