The title chase continues
English Premier League matchweek 33 — a look at what the stats say with seven games left
TODAY
BURNLEY V BRIGHTON AND HOVE ALBION
Burnley have won just one of their last seven Premier League meetings with Brighton (D4 L2) — a 3-0 win at the Amex Stadium in February 2022.
Brighton have won just two of their 11 Premier League games against Burnley (D6 L3), though both victories have come at Turf Moor (2-1 in July 2020, 2-1 in August 2021).
Burnley have taken four points from their last two Premier League home games (W1 D1), just one fewer than they’d earned in their first 14 at Turf Moor this season (W1 D2 L11). Only Manchester City (12) have scored more goals from outside the box in the Premier League this season than Burnley (nine), with a league-high 28% of the Clarets’ goals this term coming from distance (9/32).
Having won their first two Premier League away games this season, Brighton have since won just two of their last 14 on the road (D4 L8). They’ve scored 15 goals in these four away wins (3,8 per game), compared to just eight goals in the 12 games they haven’t won (0,7 per game).
Burnley have had a league-high seven red cards in the Premier League this season, while only Nottingham Forest (6) have seen their opponents have a player sent off more often than Brighton (4). The last team to receive more red cards in a single campaign were QPR in 2011-12 (9).
MANCHESTER CITY V LUTON TOWN
Man City have won their last four home league games against Luton by an aggregate score of 12-1.
They last hosted them in April 1999 in the third tier (2-0), while they last did so in the top-flight in February 1992 (4-0).
Luton have conceded eight goals against Man City in all competitions this season, losing 2-1 in the Premier League and 6-2 in the FA Cup. They last conceded more against a side in a single campaign (excluding as a non-league side) in 1999-00 (11 in four meetings with B ristol Rovers).
Luton have never won an away league match against the reigning top-flight champions in 16 attempts (D3 L13), losing the last nine by an aggregate score of 27-2.
Following a 2-1 win against Bournemouth last time out, Luton are looking to win consecutive Premier League games for the second
Bournemouth’s English striker Dominic Solanke (right) vies with Luton Town’s English defender Teden Mengi during the English Premier League football match between Bournemouth and Luton
Town at the Vitality Stadium in Bournemouth, southern England on March 13, 2024. time, previously doing so against Newcastle and Sheffield United in December.
Luton are — along with Sheffield United — one of two sides without an away clean sheet in the Premier League this season, with the Hatters conceding a league-high 38 goals on the road so far this term. Excluding penalties, only Arsenal (19) and Everton (15) have scored more goals from set-piece situations than Luton in the Premier League this season (14).
Kevin De Bruyne has been involved in nine goals in just 11 Premier League appearances this season, scoring three and assisting six. He’s averaging a goal or assist every 75 minutes this term, the best rate of any player (min. 500 minutes).
NOTTINGHAM FOREST V WOLVERHAMPTON WANDERERS
Nottingham Forest have won just one of their last 10 league games against Wolves (D4 L5) and are winless in all three against them in the Premier League (D2 L1).
Wolves are unbeaten in their last five away league games against Nottingham Forest (W3 D2), since a 3-1 Championship defeat in March 2013. No side has lost more
Premier League games in 2024 than Nottingham Forest (seven), with only Burnley (eight) and Sheffield United (seven) earning fewer points than Forest so far this calendar year (nine).
They last had a longer winless run in the same campaign between October and November last season (5). Wolves have kept just two clean sheets in their last 32 Premier League away games, with both of those coming this season in a 1-0 win at Everton (August) and 0-0 draw at Brighton (January).
Excluding penalties, Nottingham Forest have conceded a league-high 21 goals from set-piece situations this season.
Meanwhile, Wolves have scored 27% of their goals from set pieces this term (12/44, excluding penalties), the third highest ratio in the division after Everton (47%) and Luton (31%). Since the start of last season, Nottingham Forest have dropped more points from winning positions than any other Premier League side (48).
BOURNEMOUTH V MANCHESTER UNITED
Bournemouth are looking to complete their first league double over
Manchester United, following their 3-0 win at Old Trafford in December.
Manchester United have won four of their six Premier League away games against Bournemouth, losing the other two in December 2015 (12) and November 2019 (0-1).
Bournemouth have won each of their last three Premier League home games — they’ve never won four in a row at home in the topflight before.
After a run of six away games that saw them keep four clean sheets and concede just two goals, Manchester United have now conceded in each of their last eight on the road, shipping 17 goals in total.
Manchester United have dropped 15 points from winning positions in the Premier League this season, their most ever in a single campaign. They’ve led late in each of their last three, but failed to win any of them (1-1 v Brentford, 3-4 v Chelsea, 2-2 v Liverpool).
In their last two Premier League matches Manchester United have conceded the first goal, gone on to take the lead but ultimately failed to win. Only West Ham in April 2016 have ever done this in three consecutive games in the competition.
TOMORROW
LIVERPOOL V CRYSTAL PALACE
Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 13 Premier League games against Crystal Palace (W11 D2) since a 2-1 home loss in April 2017.
Since winning three consecutive away league games against Liverpool between 2015 and 2017, Crystal Palace are now winless in their last six at Anfield (D1 L5).
Liverpool are unbeaten in each of their last 28 Premier League home games — winning 22 and drawing six. However, they’ve not kept a clean sheet in any of their last eight at Anfield, last having a longer run between December 1998 and May 1999 (nine games).
Having won their first Premier League game under Oliver Glasner, Crystal Palace are now winless in their last five. They’ve lost their last two, but haven’t lost more consecutively since a run of four in March last year.
Palace have conceded around 10 goals more than expected in the Premier League this season (54 goals conceded, 44,3 xG against), with only Sheffield United having a bigger such difference in the competition this term (82 conceded, 61,2 xG against).
Liverpool have conceded around seven goals fewer than expected in the Premier League this season (30 conceded, 36,5 xG against), with only Manchester United having a bigger such difference in the competition this term (46 conceded, 58,2 xG against).
ARSENAL V ASTON VILLA
Arsenal have won five of their last six home Premier League games against Aston Villa, losing the other 3-0 in November 2020.
Following their 1-0 win against them at Villa Park in December, Aston Villa are looking to complete just their third Premier League double over Arsenal, previously doing so in 1992-93 and 2020-21.
Aston Villa are unbeaten in their last nine Premier League away games against London sides (W6 D3), having lost eight of their previous nine before this (W1). It’s the Villans’ longest run without defeat in the capital in their league history.
Arsenal have won 10 of their last 11 Premier League games (D1), scoring at least twice in each victory. The Gunners have conceded just four goals across these 11 games, though three of those have been at the Emirates Stadium.