To prevent Bok tears, the plan needs to be more than just ‘give the ball to Schalk’

Saturday Comment

THERE are two contrasting visions that present themselves when I try to imagine what is likely to happen when the Springboks and the All Blacks clash in today’s eagerly awaited World Cup semi-final at Twickenham.

The first isn’t a good one for South African fans.

It is a vision of the many Bok fans who will be at the home of rugby this evening being silenced in the opening quarter by some killer blows from an All Black team that will use their runners to try and expose potential weaknesses in the Bok midfield defence.

The South African defence has generally been good since the loss to Japan, with just two tries conceded in the four matches since they left Brighton.

But I’m not sure they were subjected to a proper test of the type that the All Blacks could pose for them today, and the organisational mistakes made by Jesse Kriel in the closing stages of the Japan loss would have been noted by the Kiwis.

Scotland did score three tries against Australia last week, but before now there was good reason why they weren’t ranked in the top five in world rugby.

Two of those tries were gifts laid on for them on a platter. Wales were in the top five when they clashed with the Boks last week, but at the moment they are in the same league as the South Africans when it comes to making effective use of their outside backs.

The All Blacks have the Xfactor and the firepower to strike hard and quickly. Remember the Super Rugby quarter-final earlier this year between the Stormers and the Brumbies, and how quickly the latter got into the game and exposed some of the former’s deficiencies? There was a surreal silence at Newlands as the Australian outfit went ahead. My vision depicts something similar.

If that foreboding, and let’s call it that for all South Africans will be hoping for a Bok victory, is proved cor- rect, the post-mortems will highlight the outdated strategy and thinking of the Bok management.

Images of dinosaurs lumbering around the rugby field might well be evoked in columns calling for South African rugby to dump the coaches and freshen up with a more enlightened management group.

My other vision, though, paints a completely different picture. That one depicts the Boks making early physical statements, the pack imposing themselves on the All Blacks, and the overwhelming favourites being forced into a pressure situation of the sort they haven’t faced since their opening pool match against Argentina – but this time with the added gravitas of sudden death.

The Boks had to do it tough against Wales and that might just help them today if they stay with the Kiwis on the scoreboard, or even take a lead. We’ve seen the Kiwis in the past slip into error mode when that happens and to put it in a blunt way, the Boks may well succeed in dragging the world’s No 1 ranked team down to their level.

That outcome could become even more of a possibility if it’s wet in London, which as I write this it looks like it may well be, and is indeed predicted to be.

Heavier underfoot conditions will slow the All Blacks down and play into the hands of a South African game plan that appears limited to hoping that the tactical kicking of Fourie du Preez and the brute force of the behemoths in the second row, plus the “Incredible Schalk” will suffice in the same way as it did last week.

A South African win could certainly happen and the sort of game that I envisaged in my alternative scenario, the one where the Kiwis strike early and quickly and kill the contest, doesn’t happen often.

If you remember that the 14-point loss in Auckland in 2013 was influenced by Bismarck du Plessis’ bizarre sending off, and that when they were defeated at Ellis Park later that season they were playing an alien game demanded by a chase for a four- try bonus point, then there aren’t enough big recent wins to draw on for All Black fans who are hoping for an easy passage into the final.

If the Boks do win today, though, I hope it doesn’t send out the wrong message. You won’t catch me arguing against the kicking game, for it should not be news to anyone that the All Blacks kick more than most teams.

But the Bok backs don’t look like they are being coached and if you note how Argentina, who at times used to be as unwatchable as the Boks, have grown their game and progressed towards a more total rugby strategy, then there really is no excuse for the Boks not to move towards a more complete product.

I argued after the Brighton defeat that the Boks must do “whatever it takes” to win the World Cup. They are doing that. Heyneke Meyer hasn’t grown the game enough to do anything else.

However, this country needs to be chasing consistent success like the All Blacks do rather than pinning everything that happens in the four-year cycle on what happens in a match like today’s.

To get that right, they will need a game plan that is more dynamic and intelligent than one which at the moment could easily be summed up as “give the ball to Schalk”.