Credit rating in the balance

THE jury is still out on whether Finance

Minister Pravin Gordhan has done

enough in his Budget to ward off a credit-

rating downgrade.

That this fate befell Brics partner Brazil in the

hours after Gordhan delivered the speech serves to

emphasise the distance this country would still

have to fall to warrant such a move by the rating

agencies and to highlight some of the risks we have

in common.

As Gordhan mentioned in a briefing in Parliament

on Thursday, Brazil’s total government debt is expect-

ed to approach 80 percent relative to GDP in the next

three years, and South Africa is “nowhere near that”,

with the Budget targeting 46.2 percent by 2017/18. But

ratings agency Moody’s also cited the political tur-

moil afflicting that country as a risk to its ability to

implement promised fiscal consolidation.

On that front, too, South Africa seemed on a

firmer footing when Gordhan was speaking in Par-

liament, beset though it might be by the “hurtful

fractures” he mentioned in his speech.

But now it has emerged the Hawks have sent

questions to the minister about the “rogue” intelli-

gence unit alleged to have operated in Sars on his

watch as commissioner.

It is impossible for ordinary citizens to know

how much truth there is to those allegations. But it

is disturbing that a steady stream of leaks to the

media on the matter has been characterised by

much innuendo and little evidence.

ANC secretary-general Gwede Mantashe de-

scribed this yesterday as “a well calculated destabil-

isation plan with all the elements of disinforma-

tion, falsehoods and exaggerated facts”.

No doubt, time will tell.

Meanwhile, however, an attack on the finance

minister by a security organ of the state has the po-

tential to undo whatever good Gordhan may have

been able to do in his Budget.