Weekend Argus (Saturday Edition)
Forget the pollsters, there were some who saw upset coming early on
LONDON: A reality TV star, a billionaire property mogul and a controversial political outsider – the idea Donald Trump would become president when he announced his bid in June last year was widely considered preposterous and beyond the bounds of probability. It also seemed out of the question after his sexually aggressive “pussy- grabbing” comments emerged and Hillary Clinton steadily inched above him in the polls.
But he defied the pollsters, the media, and even his own party to become the president of the United States.
It was not only he who was so adamant about his own victory – there were those individuals who predicted this day. Back in July, Moore announced he believed Trump would beat Democrat rival Hillary Clinton and become the next president. The Os c a r - wi n - ning documentary-maker and left-wing political commentator wrote a blog post titled “Five reasons why Trump will win”, stirring consternation among some of his fans.
While Moore might have said he had never wanted to be proved wrong more than he did now, he also said he stood by his prediction.
“Donald J Trump is going to win in November,” he wrote. “This wretched, ignorant, dangerous part-time clown and full-time sociopath is going to be our next president. President Trump. Go ahead and say the words, because you’ll be saying them for the next four years.”
“And if you believe Hillary Clinton is going to beat Trump with facts and smarts and logic, then you obviously missed the past year of 56 primaries and caucuses where 16 Republican candidates tried that and every kitchen sink they could throw at Trump and nothing could stop his juggernaut.”
He suggested Trump’s emphasis on Midwest states, the protest vote of the “angry white male”, the “Hillary problem”, the Jesse Ventura effect and the depressed Bernie Sanders vote would lead to a win.
Moore has also since said Trump’s election is going to be the “biggest f** k you in human history”, describing him as the “human Molotov cocktail” his supporters have been waiting for.
On more occasion than one the former UKIP leader and key architect of the Brexit decision said he thought the Republican would win and we would be faced with this day, which Trump himself has referred to as “Brexit plus plus plus”.
Farage argued the Brexit result would instil support for Trump and the same populist forces which propelled his victory would do the same for the Republican.
“I now strongly think Trump will win,” he said back in September.
“Brexit is the first kickback against the establishment. It’s not a British event, it’s not a European event.
“It’s a global event and I think it has implications for every Western democracy. In the case of America – absolutely.”
Professor Allan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1984, foresaw Trump’s victory – although he did admit it was the most difficult election to predict yet. Li c h t man’s prediction is not founded on polls, shifting demographics or his own political opinions – instead he uses a system of true/false statements he labels the “Keys to the White House” to come to his decision about a winner.
The keys are outlined in depth in Lichtman’s book Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2016.
The controversial columnist and editor-at-large of the US Mail Online has known Trump for nearly a decade. He met Trump on the first series of his Celebrity Apprentice which Morgan won in 2008. Morgan has been vocal about the possibility of Trump becoming president and has written about what he needs to do to win.
“As the man who predicted @realDonaldTrump would last more than three weeks AND win the Rep nomination, I now predict he’ll beat Hillary Clinton,” he tweeted in April.
As votes for Trump seeped in, Morgan tweeted: “I think you should have listened to your Uncle Piers” and “RIP pollsters. All of them”.
Some condemned Morgan’s posts, one saying: “You are an intelligent man and you think this is a good thing. See your doctor to seek a dementia test.” – The Independent