Inflation data will dominate next week

INFLATION data will dominate date releases next week as consumer inflation is scheduled for Wednesday and producer inflation for Thursday.

Apart from the inflation data, we have the December steel production data, the November tourism accommodation data, the November food and beverage data, the November land transport data, December liquidations and November insolvencies on Monday, followed by the November leading indicator on Tuesday.

The November BankservAfrica Disposable Salary Index is also scheduled for release during the week. The December Exchequer Account, which was scheduled for Monday, has been moved to the following week in a late notification yesterday afternoon by the National Treasury.

Consumer inflation is likely to rebound in December as the Gauteng petrol price jumped to 14.9% year-on-year (y/y) in December from 7.9% y/y in November.

The consensus forecast for consumer inflation is therefore a rise back to the October level of 4.8% y/y after easing to 4.6% y/y in November. For similar reasons, the December producer inflation rate is likely to increase from the 5.1% y/y rise seen in November.

November steel production rose by 10.1% y/y in November and a rise of similar magnitude is expected in December due to robust demand from both domestic and overseas users.

Income from tourism accommodation grew by 2.9% y/y in October after a 3.4% y/y gain in September, but there should have been a recovery in November.

The number of stay units sold for the total industry fell by 3.7% y/y in October after a 1.7% y/y drop in September.

The tonnage transported by land grew by 10.1% y/y in October after a 4.8% y/y increase in September.

There should have been another double-digit increase in November as retailers scrambled to replace goods sold on Black Friday. Road transport grew by 10.1% from 6.2%, while rail transport recovered to 9.8% from 0.9%.