Preparing for second surge of the virus

NEWLY released antibody tests for Covid-19 might be the weapon South Africa needs to better prepare if the country is hit by a second wave.

Across Europe, Covid-19 has returned with a vengeance. Infections are rising as countries scramble to implement new measures to halt its spread.

In Paris for the first time, it has become mandatory to wear a mask in public.

However, in South Africa infection rates have been falling.

But this might not be for long. There is debate whether South Africa will experience a second wave.

Some researchers believe that because the country went into early lockdown, it might be spared. Others think it is going to be a slow burn rate of infections that will be with us for at least the next three years.

Professor Alex Welte, of the South African Centre of Excellence for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis, believes the wave is coming.

“So we know there’s going to be a second wave and we know we’re going to have more information this time,” he said. “But we need to feel more empowered to manage the next wave more rationally, so it has less of an economic impact and we are more effective. And that is the important use of these tests.”

Antibody tests for Covid-19 can help researchers and health professionals better prepare and work out just who is

vulnerable to the disease.

The test could also solve that great Covid-19 mystery – just how many South Africans have been exposed to the disease during the pandemic.

In other countries, the spread through populations has been astonishing. A study conducted in Mumbai India, in last month discovered that of nearly 7000 blood samples taken from the residents of the city’s slums, 57% tested positive for Covid-19 antibodies. This suggests that half of the population was exposed to the virus, with few showing symptoms.

By Thursday night, South Africa had just over 618000 cases, however, researchers believe that the real infection rate could be 10 times higher.

Antibody tests would, said Welte, allow researchers to conduct surveys of the population to get an understanding of the infection rate.