NEIL HAYWARD BRIDGE

Opening Lead: ♥K. They play three top hearts. What’s the plan? Trumps break 3-2.

Recommended Line: You ruff the third heart, and draw trumps. You see four possible losers.

To reduce that tally by one, you can discard on a good club, if they break 3-3, or you can finesse in diamonds. The diamond finesse is a 50 percent chance; the 3-3 break in clubs is a 36 percent chance. Players who know their odds might think it’s a no-brainer: they will try the diamond finesse. However, such an approach is a case of a little knowledge being a dangerous thing. You should pursue the lesser chance first, but not putting all your eggs in that basket. After drawing trumps, concede a club. That’s the clever move. Win the next trick, and cash clubs off the top. If they break 3-3, you get a discard and chalk up ten tricks. If clubs don’t work out, your last roll of the dice is the diamond finesse. By combining your chances in this way, your chances amount to success 68 percent.

That adds 18 percent to your chances were you to bank on diamonds alone. Additional knowledge is a splendid thing.