What’s next for Ace Magashule?
Some predict it’s the end of the road for the ANC’s suspended secretary-general but others warn he should not be underestimated
WHEN he became secretary-general of the ANC after a bruising factional battle to elect the party’s leadership in 2017, political analysts predicted that President Cyril Ramaphosa was going to have a hard time making good on many of his campaign promises.
Ace Magashule carried a lot of clout in the ANC and his alliance with former president Jacob Zuma made him a direct opponent to the party’s new president.
For some three years the two men have gone up against each other in battles big and small. But it was only in recent weeks that things really came to a head with Magashule being suspended – and trying to suspend Ramaphosa in turn.
We take a closer look at the most significant political fight since the ANC elected Ramaphosa president over Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma.
WHY MAGASHULE WAS SUSPENDED Late last year the secretary-general (SG) was arrested on corruption charges related to kickbacks he allegedly got from a R250-million asbestos eradication tender awarded in the Free State during his nine-year stint as premier of the province, which ended in 2018. He’s currently out on R200 000 bail and is expected to appear in the high court in Bloemfontein in August with 15 co-accused to face more than 70 charges including fraud, theft and money laundering.
As a result, he’s one of the people who has to relinquish his position in line with the ANC’s step-aside policy – which says anyone charged with a crime or serious corruption should step aside until proven innocent or guilty. Affected people were given a month to voluntarily step down or face temporary suspension. Because Magashule refused to step aside, he was given a temporary suspension, with his deputy, Jessie Duarte, taking over his role until he’s had his day in court.
HIS FIGHT FOR SURVIVAL By forcing the party to suspend him, Magashule, a loyal Zuma supporter is trying to cast himself in the role of victim, says political analyst Dr Trust Matsilele.
He’s trying to play the same card Zuma did back in 2005. Zuma, then deputy president, was forced to step aside because of corruption charges he faced relating to the controversial 1999 arms deal, Matsilele says. “But he’s making a fundamental mistake because Zuma had coalitions behind him – the Congress of South African Trade Unions, the South African Communist Party, the ANC Youth League and the ANC Women’s League. All those coalitions are not supporting Ace,” he adds.
Ultimately, Matsilele says, Magashule is aiming to get Ramaphosa recalled – just as Zuma did in 2008 with Thabo Mbeki, but it’s clear Magashule has overestimated the clout he carries within
the upper ranks of the party. “He’s certainly observing his political life coming to an end,” Matsilele says.
“Unfortunately he seems to be drunk with the love of power and the love of remaining in the secretary-general’s office, perhaps thinking that the political current will turn against Ramaphosa and he’ll find himself at the helm of the party.”
HIS POWER WITHIN THE ANC Political analyst Dr Ntsikelelo Breakfast says the lack of support Magashule got during a recent national executive committee (NEC) meeting – which saw him being kicked out when he showed up – was telling.
“I think the support of the SG is shrinking. The mere fact that there was no province that spoke in his favour in the recent NEC meeting signifies that he’s losing ground,” Breakfast says.
But political analyst Ralph Mathekga warns Magashule won’t just roll over and concede defeat. Magashule has turned to the courts to have his suspension declared unlawful. By going to court, the politician is buying time so he can appeal to the ANC branches, Mathekga says.
While the NEC has backed Ramaphosa, Magashule remains a powerful force at branch level, Mathekga adds. The branches could side with Magashule and say that all party members facing corruption allegations – and not just formal charges – should be forced to step aside, which would mean that even Ramaphosa would have to vacate office while questions remain about how his 2017 presidential campaign was funded.
It’s for this reason the ANC shouldn’t expel him, analysts say. Magashule issuing a suspension letter to Ramaphosa is enough grounds to expel him but instead the ANC has just insisted on an apology.
Mathekga warns that axing the party’s secretary-general could lead to a mutiny at branch level, resulting in Ramaphosa also being kicked out. “Remember, he was elected to the national office. If you expel him you’re actually overturning a decision by the members of the ANC,” he says.
“Where do you end? Exactly where Ace wants you – a special congress where people are angry and frustrated about the impact of anti-corruption on them, which could turn into an open revolt against Ramaphosa.” Mathekga says the ANC should let the suspension run its course and leave the courts to rule on the matter, which will leave Magashule in limbo.
Breakfast agrees that ANC decision-makers made the right call in demanding that he apologise rather than just expelling him. “They could’ve expelled him on the spot but they realised that he’s using psychological warfare to get sympathy,” Breakfast says.
“The rationale behind the decision to make him apologise in public and not to dismiss him is basically to project him as a person who’s ill-disciplined if he doesn’t comply with that order.”
WHAT IT MEANS FOR RAMAPHOSA The factionalism within his party often seemed to hobble Ramaphosa, but Magashule’s suspension shows things have swung in the president’s favour.
“One of the challenges that has been causing the weakening of the ANC is their lacklustre approach in dealing with corruption,” Matsilele says.
“But if the ruling party suspends its SG because of allegations or court charges of corruption, that sends a positive message to the international markets and also to the ratings agencies.”
Matsilele foresees the ANC performing well in the upcoming municipal elections, with a high possibility of them winning back the major metros they lost in the last election.
The experts all agree that the internal bickering has done untold damage to the country – particularly when it comes to getting the economy back on track and the all-important Covid-19 vaccine rollout.
“There’s no doubt there’s been gross incompetence in the vaccine rollout,” Matsilele says. “Even looking at countries that are poorly run like Zimbabwe, they seem to be doing a better job compared to South Africa.”
BREAKAWAY PARTY RUMOURS There’s been talk that Magashule could band together with allies to form a breakaway party but experts say this is unlikely.
“They would need institutions of the state to fund the political party and they can’t do that without controlling the state,” Matsilele says. “That’s why there were threats that people were going to resign en masse in cabinet and the NEC, but that didn’t happen because people know that they wouldn’t survive outside of the state and the NEC.”
Mathekga agrees. “For now it’s risky to go and form a breakaway party that will get 5% of the votes while the ANC is most likely to win the next elections.”
Breakfast says even if a breakaway party could be looming, it will have to do a lot of groundwork in order to uproot the ANC. “The ANC is a liberation movement and the name ANC is a brand – it carries weight.”
‘THEY COULD’VE EXPELLED HIM ON THE SPOT BUT THEY REALISED THAT HE’S USING PSYCHOLOGICAL WARFARE TO GET SYMPATHY