POWER IN THE PARTY

In the upper echelons of government and in the ANC, Ramaphosa has consolidated his power and surrounded himself with loyalists, Booysen says. “There are people like Dr Gwen Ramokgopa, justice minister Ronald Lamola, transport minister Fikile Mbalula, higher education minister Blade Nzimande and energy minister Gwede Mantashe, loyalists within the structures of the ANC, who support him,” adds Duvenhage.

Those who’d run against him to be ANC leader don’t have quite the same kind of support he enjoys right now.

His replacement would have to be someone with a strong support base in the party, Booysen says. “The current indicators are that [former health minister] Dr Zweli Mkhize, who has a strong KZN support base, is one such person, although his base is not as strong as Ramaphosa’s. At this stage, he is also more tainted than Ramaphosa.

“[Former Gauteng premier] Paul Mashatile, although less well known nationally, could be a compromise candidate. The ANC’s top leadership echelon is quite depleted,” she adds.

There’s little doubt Ramaphosa will be the ANC’s presidential candidate