A fine Mas you've got us in
National news comment: Catalan election results
WITH political analysts trying to explain the different scenarios that open up following Sunday's regional elections in Cataluña, there is only one that seems certain: the Catalan issue will continue to be a headache for Spain in the near future.
Acting regional president Artur Mas wanted this to be a plebiscite, a cloaked referendum on who wants in and who wants out - and it just created another huge mess.
Everyone appears to be a winner but secretly nearly all are loosers - especially the people of Cataluña, who will continue to be divided into two clear and even more differentiated factions: those who want to stay Catalan and Spanish, and those who want to break free.
The 'Junts Pel Sí' platform that united the centre-right nationalists Convergència and republican nationalists ERC failed to obtain an overall majority. Sr Mas had promised that if they achieved this, he would certainly proclaim the Catalan independence without consulting Madrid.
The truth is, they failed to do so. As a matter of fact, his party (Convergència) and ERC obtained eight regional MP seat less than in the previous regional election and fall six shorts of an overall majority.
Support from radical nationalists CUP (10 regional MPs) would provide the necessary seats, but CUP have openly stated they would never support Artur Mas to become regional president again. So either 'Junts Pel Sí' appoint another candidate to lead the regional government, or CUP will not provide its support.
And so far Artur Mas has been confirmed as the candidate and he's adamant to 'lead the path to independence' - indeed a fine mess Mas has got into.
Even if CUP accepted Mas and formed a coalition, there are serious differences between the three nationalist parties. While Convergència and ERC want succession from Spain but insist on remaining part of the EU (basically claiming all the warnings from Cameron, Merkel, Obama and Rajoy are lies), CUP's voters and main members are anti-establishment activists who want nothing to do with Spain or the EU. A tough amalgam to form. Another fact in this Mas mess it that the final figures on Sunday show that over 52% of the votes in Cataluña went to parties favouring the region staying part of Spain, and just under 48% favoured 'Junts Pel Sí' or CUP.
Yes, it's one of those 'concentration of votes per district' equations whereby the party that won most seats is not the one that obtained the overall majority of votes. Yes, a law backed by the Spanish Constitution will have to be used by the anti-Spanish parties as an excuse to continue with the independency march.
On Sunday, pro-independence parties got 1,800,000 votes, practically the same figure obtained in the illegal referendum held by Artur Mas in November last year (for which Artur Mas has this week been charged and faces an eight-year prison sentence).
It appears the independency seekers have reached their limit. They have gained no further support in the past year, during which calls for independency by the regional government have been practically an everyday occurrence.
The matter gets worse for the separatists if you look at the electoral lists. Despite the very high participation on Sunday (77.5%), there is still almost a quarter of the electorate that has not voiced its opinion. If the nationalists decided to proclaim Catalan independence, they would be doing so with the support of only 37% of the electorate - completely unacceptable by any international convention.
Sunday did not even give nationalist parties their best results ever. In 1992, nationalist parties obtained 54.2% of the votes cast and three years later 50.4% - but independency plans were not on the table in those years. In the past five years the Catalans have been called to the polling stations three times and the nationalists support has gradually dropped from 48.7% in 2010 to 47.8% this year (47.9% in 2012).
Will the nationalists still go ahead? On Sunday night Artur Mas said ' Yes'. But figures and conflicts with other nationalist may force him to do the contrary. Either way, he will be using the results to demand the PP government in Madrid ' negotiates' better conditions for Cataluña - something many political analysts claim has always been his real target.
Which is the more realistic scenario? That CUP votes against Mas in the first investiture vote (November 9 at the latest) where an overall majority is required, but abstains in the second, when a simple majority is sufficient to proclaim a president.
However, this would also require that Catalunya Sí Que es Pot ( Podemos) does not vote against Sr Mas. If they do not, then Artur Mas would be invested, but knowing he is standing on quicksand.
Proud Mas could also step down to allow his dream to be fulfilled by someone else - unlikely but not impossible for the man who has risked his entire career to do so.
There is a third scenario, whereby CUP votes against Mas in the second vote, thus meaning no president could be sworn in and automatically forcing the regional elections to be repeated.
This is an option favoured by the new leading opposition party Ciudadanos. On Sunday night, regional Ciudadanos leader Inés Arrimadas said the elections should be repeated, but with all parties fighting for themselves, not under confusing 'temporary civic platforms' and slogans such as ' Junts Pel Sí'. This would allow voters to decide for individual parties and also focus on plans to rule Cataluña taking into account real problems such as education, employment and healthcare, instead of just the bid for independence.
Inés Arrimadas, a 37-year-old lawyer daughter of Andalucian parents, has become a new icon in Spanish politics under the umbrella of national leader Albert Rivera - a Catalan himself.
She has openly attacked Mas and Jonqueras (leader of ERC) for focussing all the campaign on independence and not on the real problems.
She accused ' Junts Pel Sí' of only having one thing in common and, when it comes to the everyday ruling of Cataluña, being incapable of reaching an agreement between themselves. And she is right. On Sunday night internet searched for Ines Arrimadas were far above those of any other candidate - surprising when just before the campaign a survey showed seven of every 10 Catalans did not know who she was... well, they certainly do now.
Arrimadas may even be the one to get Cataluña out of this fine Mas!
BEYOND CATALUÑA
Although nothing has been solved in Cataluña, the results have effectively launched the campaign for the Spanish national elections expected to take place on December 13.
While it appears that the more extreme left-wing movement Podemos has lost its appeal, the huge increase of Ciudadanos (located in the centre of the political spectrum) could place them in pole position to break the PP-PSOE dominance of Spanish politics.
With overall majorities looking more and more unlikely, Ciudadanos could be the key to the Moncloa in December.
After the last local and regional elections held in May, Ciudadanos proved it was perfectly capable of forming coalitions with PP or PSOE depending on the region. With no doors closed, Ciudadanos leader Albert Rivera may even become the next prime minister.
The PP have been strongly hit in Cataluña, but in this case the outcome may have little consequence in December.
The PP have gained the animosity of the Catalan voter for refusing to even discuss an improvement to the region's status in the Kingdom of Spain - so even with its new kid on the block leader, Xavier García Albiol, the huge loss in votes was expected. However, in nationwide poll surveys, the PP continues to have a strong lead over the rest but will be presenting its controversial measures (that made the party so unpopular during the recession) as the reasons why Spain is now growing more than all other EU countries while unemployment falls.
But the PP faces a very worrying situation in the socalled ' historic regions' (Cataluña, Basque Country and Navarra). In all these, recent regional election results have left the national right-wing party with a mere testimonial presence.
The latest debacle came on Sunday with the PP obtaining less that 8.5% of the votes - a huge drop, with the majority of its support going to the centre party Ciudadanos.
On the opposite side the political spectrum, Podemos also has reason for concern. In May, it managed to place Ada Colau as mayoress of Barcelona (albeit without an overall majority and needing other parties' backing in each council vote), but Sunday's results show a huge drop in support.
Something similar occurred in the Andalucía elections, where its results were below expectations and the PSOE stayed in power with the support of Ciudadanos rather that seeking that of Podemos.
Podemos has often been called the Spanish Syriza; an opinion its leader Pablo Iglesias has fed by often travelling the Greece to support Alexis Tsipras in this electoral rallies.
Analysts now reckon such ties have damaged the emerging left-wing force - and timing its appearance on the national scene has been another mistake.
Experts say it has emerged a bit too early, while Ciudadanos seem to have got the timing just right.
Ciudadanos is not an entirely new party - it had nine seats in the Catalan parliament in 2012 (called Cuitatans de Cataluña at the time) and smaller groups of the party were formed in Valencia and the Balearic Islands.
But it jumped in the nationwide political ring just in time for the Andalucia elections in March and the local elections in May - obtaining good results as explained earlier.
Can all this mean a turning point in Spainsh politics? Will a centre party beat both PSOE and PP? We'll have to wait until Christmas (almost) to answer that.