They're off!
General election campaign starts today (Friday) with final poll surveys forecasting a hung parliament
THE APRIL 28 general election campaign officially began at midnight (Thursday to Friday), although pre-campaigning has been going on for weeks.
Pensions, the Catalan situation and certain extreme proposals, made by extreme rightwingers Vox, will be the focus of attention during the campaign.
The last official poll survey publish by CIS (Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas), hence produced by the current PSOE government, forecasts a hung parliament and the need for intense negotiations between parties to form a government.
CIS figures forecast a PSOE victory with around 30% of votes giving the Socialists between 123 and 138 MPs (variations depend on the number of votes and seats allocated to each province). In 2016, the PSOE obtained only 84 MPs.
The right-wing PP would be the most-punished party according to the CIS survey and would see its support plummet to 17% of the votes and only 66 to 76 MPs - practically half its current figure (134).
In third place, centrists Ciudadanos would get the support of 13.6% of the electorate and achieve 42 to 51 MPs. Another improvement on their 2016 tally of 32.
Far-left Podemos is forecast 12.9% of the votes and would get 33 to 41 MPs (another collapse compared to its current 71 MPs).
On the far-right, Vox would enter parliament for the first time with between 29 and 37 MPs (obtained from the forecast support of 11.9% of the electorate).
Other parties, mainly including nationalists from Cataluña, the Basque Country, Valencia, Canary Islands, Aragón, Navarra and Galicia would obtain between 31 and 39 MPs.
Serious doubts have been cast over the CIS report, which all opposition parties criticised for being 'seriously doctored' by its PSOE boss José Felix Tezanos. One of the main reasons is that no other independent survey has given the PSOE such a large advantage over the rest.
However, the survey still underlines the need even the PSOE will have to reach agreements with other parties to reach an overall majority of 176MPs. A left-wing coalition with Podemos will only be possible if both parties achieve the best possible results forecast (138 and 41 MPs respectively). So, as warned by right-wing parties, the PSOE would have to lean towards Catalan and Basque nationalists once again to ensure access to La Moncloa.
While many voters would favour a PSOE-Ciudadanos centre-left-wing agreement that would also be more likely by numbers, Ciudadanos leader Albert Rivera is adamant he wants to join PP leader Pablo Casado in a government to 'oust Pedro Sanchez'.
However, according to the CIS report, chances of a centreright-wing government are practically impossible.
Together, both parties would only achieve 76 and 51 MPs respectively and would still fall short of the 176 target even in the event of joining forces with extreme-right wingers Vox (37).
In any case, CIS experts have pointed out that 42% of the electorate has not yet decided their vote.