Spain's heading for an extreme - but which one?
Trying to forecast the result of a vote has become somewhat of a futile exercise.
It happened with Trump, it happened with Brexit and it's happened with the Spanish general elections before. Poll surveys say one thing is going to happen and the result is far different.
So surveys are no longer a forecast but more a 'slight idea' of what 'may' (not our favourite word at the moment) happen.
Maybe it's because many still havent made their mind up yet or because immitating the polititians they are supposed to favour they clearly lie about their intentions regarding who they will vote for.
Other voters work on ' feelings' or even anger against established political parties. UKIP played that card very well in the referendum and farright-wingers Vox are doing likewise here in Spain. I have met several people who say they will be voting for Vox on Sunday simply becuase they want 'to teach the rest a lesson'. One gets the impression they have not even read the extremeright manifesto apart from maybe the one or two ideas that seem to appeal to them (I cannot believe abolish gender violence laws and raising bullfighting to a 'protected historic event' is something they have given a lot of thought to)..
But all this set aside - and believe me when I say I am firmly 'apolitical' mainly becuase they seem to lead us closer to the same-sounding 'apocalypse' - the truth is Spain is heading towards an extreme government on Sunday. All we really need to know is which extreme it will be: left or right.
Unless the PM obtains an unexpected landslide victory and obtains an overall majority - which would definitely lead all poll surveyors to the unemployment desk - his PSOE party will be forced to reach a ruling agreement with far-left party Unidas Podemos and probably nationlists from the Basque and Catalan regions (want to get more extreme?).
On the other hand, if the balance of power sways right, the PP and Ciudadanos (more right the liberal just lately) together will not have enough support to creep into Moncloa and will have to depend on farright-wingers Vox - just as they had to do in Andalucía.
So Spain is in for an extreme goverment. It could be left (PSOE) and far left (Unidas Podemos), or liberal (Ciudadanos), right (PP) and extreme right (Vox) - but it will be an extreme.
Sadly, as the proverb says, extremes are dangerous. There's no need to look too far back to see what far-left and far-right governments did to Europe last century.
Spain has had its far share of both, especially the farright under Franco.
As Edmund Burke stated: "Those who don't know history are doomed to repeat it'...