Addressing the challenge of climate change

In the plantation sector, there could be both direct and indirect impacts. Direct impacts will result from increased carbon dioxide levels, which affect photosynthesis and rising temperature which, in turn, cause heat stress and increased evapotranspiration in crops.

Indirect impacts will result from changes in moisture levels, an increased incidence of pests and growing spoilage of agro products as a result of enhanced microbial activity. These effects could result in reduced yields and shifts in productivity.

According to current climate change predictions for Sri Lanka, the effects of climate change by 2050 will be marginal, reaching only +0.50C for temperature increase and +5 percent for evaporation/rainfall (wet season only) in the high scenario.

However, in the scenario for 2010, the changes became quite significant.

The trends also suggest that within the averages, the intensity of dry weather and rainfall may increase. Therefore, climate change could have increasingly significant effects even in the scenario for the year 2070.

Studies on weather patterns and crop yields for the past years have shown that drought affects tea by reducing the yields.

On the other hand, irregular patterns of rainfall and high seasonal concentrations in the wet zone, with attendant increases in runoff ratios, could result in soil erosion, land degradation and the loss of productivity of plantation crops.

What is USA doing?

On June 25, 2013, the President announced his plan to cut carbon pollution and prepare the United States for the impacts of climate change.

His proposals are Clean energy, Climate and Transportation, Climate and Water, Climate and Waste, Carbon Dioxide Capture and Sequestration, Carbon Dioxide Emissions Associated with Bio-energy and Other Biogenic Sources and Climate Science Research.

Collecting emissions data

They are collecting various types of greenhouse gas emissions data. This data helps policymakers, businesses and the agency track greenhouse gas emissions trends and identify opportunities for reducing emissions and increasing efficiency.

The Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks, provides the United States’ official estimate of total nationallevel greenhouse gas emissions. This report has tracked annual U.S. greenhouse gas emissions since 1990. The Greenhouse Gas Reporting Programme collects and publishes emissions data from individual facilities in the United States that emit greenhouse gases in large quantities.

Getting reductions

They are reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and promoting a clean energy economy through highly successful partnerships and common-sense regulatory initiatives.

Developing common-sense regulatory initiatives: EPA is developing commonsense regulatory initiatives to reduce GHG emissions and increase efficiency. For example, EPA’s vehicle greenhouse gas rules, will save consumers US $ 1.7 trillion at the pump by 2025 and eliminate six billion metric tons of GHG pollution.

Partnering with the private sector: Through voluntary energy and climate programmes, EPA’s partners reduced over 345 million metric tons of greenhouse gases in 2010 alone - equivalent to the emissions from 81 million vehicles - and saving consumers and businesses of about US $ 21 billion.

Reducing EPA’s carbon footprint: EPA is monitoring emissions from its own energy use and fuel consumption and working to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 25 percent by 2020.

Evaluating policy options, costs and benefits

They are conducting economy-wide analyses to understand the economic impacts and effectiveness of proposed climate policies. Learn more about EPA’s economic analyses on climate policies and the associated costs and benefits.

Advancing the science

They are contributing to world-class climate research through the U.S. Global Change Research Programme and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. EPA’s Office of Research and Development conducts research to understand the environmental and health impacts of climate change and to provide sustainable solutions for adapting to and reducing the impact from a changing climate.

Partnering internationally

They are engaged in a variety of international activities to advance climate change science, monitor our environment and promote activities that reduce greenhouse gas emissions. EPA establishes partnerships, provides leadership and shares technical expertise to support these activities. Learn more about EPA’s International Climate Partnerships.

Influencing climate change policy in Sri Lanka

The Water Resources Management Institute in Sri Lanka has stated that there is ample evidence to suggest that Sri Lanka’s climate is changing. Annual mean temperatures show a significant warming trend while mean annual precipitation decreased by 144mm (seven percent) during 1961-1990, compared to 1931-1960. In a country where agriculture contributes approximately 32 percent of total employment and 12 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP), rising temperatures and changes in the quantity and distribution of rainfall could have a significant impact on farming activities. For example, they could lead to an increase in irrigation water requirements for rice and a decline in coconut productivity, two key crops for Sri Lanka.

Although the past trends are fairly clear, Sri Lanka’s future climate appears more uncertain. Studies which look at future climate scenarios are rare but there is general consensus among these projections that Sri Lanka will become increasingly warm during the 21st century, although the projected magnitude of temperature increase by 2100 ranges from 0.9-4°C. Rainfall projections, however, are confusing and contradictory, with some studies projecting increased mean annual precipitation and others projecting a decrease. In the face of such uncertainty, how should Sri Lanka’s agriculture sector adapt to climate change?

IWMI partnership

A partnership between the International Water Management Institute (IWMI) and government agencies began in 2009, when the IWMI invited officials from several ministries and water and agriculture agencies to a national ‘Water for Food’ conference to raise the profile of their research. As part of the CGIAR Research Programme on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), the IWMI researchers had embarked on a major review, later titled ‘Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources and Agriculture in Sri Lanka’. Its lead author, Nishadi Eriyagama, presented some of the material the team was working on, focusing in particular on analysis of vulnerability to climate change.

The study elaborated the high degree of uncertainty associated with Sri Lanka’s future climate and pointed out that the best course of action would be to embrace ‘no regrets’ adaptation interventions which simultaneously deliver climate resilience and address current development needs, rather than to wait for climate modelling to unravel the ambiguities and uncertainties.

The best example of such an intervention is the restoration of the ancient tank storage system, to provide irrigation water during droughts and store excess water during floods. Other identified ‘no regrets’ interventions include rainwater harvesting and storage during higher rainfall seasons, development of sustainable groundwater, promotion and adoption of micro-irrigation technologies and wastewater reuse.

Climate Change Adaptation Strategy

The timing of the CCAFS study was propitious. The Environment Ministry had begun to prepare the Sri Lanka National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy 2011-2016 and was also in the process of drafting the country’s Second National Communication to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Eriyagama and her colleagues were subsequently invited to attend workshops organised by the Environment Ministry and to provide information and comment on draft reports. The National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy 20112016 used the IWMI’s methodology for mapping vulnerability to climate change, while the Second National Communication presented information drawn from the IWMI’s research.

The IWMI study also identified the country’s agricultural vulnerability hotspots using an index which measures exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The vulnerability maps, which have been reproduced in a sub-report of the Second National Communication, indicate that certain farming districts such as Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Moneragala, Ratnapura and Anuradhapura are particularly vulnerable to climate change due to their heavy reliance on primary agriculture, coupled with low ownership of infrastructural and socioeconomic assets.

In preparing the Sri Lanka Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, the Environment Ministry modified and refined the IWMI’s climate change vulnerability index to identify the current status and key climate change related issues that need to be addressed in five major sectors: Agriculture and fisheries, water, health, urban development and biodiversity and ecosystem services. At every stage, the Environment Ministry engaged with different stakeholders, including the IWMI, to formulate the strategy.

Although faced with a high degree of uncertainty, the Sri Lankan Environment Ministry has been able to identify plausible policy and technical solutions to adapt to climate change, based on available tools and information, rather than seeking definitive climate projections for the country. The strategy, for example, contains some of the ‘no regrets’ adaptation options suggested by the IWMI’s study, including restoration of the country’s ancient tank system and the promotion of rainwater harvesting, as priority measures for implementation.

The National Climate Change Policy of Sri Lanka was approved in January 2012. In accordance with this policy and the Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, National Expert Committees on Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation have been convened. The Environment Ministry is preparing.

(The writer can be contacted at treecrops@gmail.com)