Climate Change and population growth will cause an 80% rise in drought by 2100

Europe is set to suffer more severe droughts due to climate change and increased water use, scientists have warned.

By the end of the century, southern Europe in particular will have 80 per cent more droughts than at present.

New research by the European Commission predicts that water shortages will be made worse by population growth and increased demand.

Drought can have a serious economic and social impact and is thought to have cost Europe over €100billion (or £83billion) in the past three decades alone.

Researchers used computer models to predict which parts of Europe could be worst hit by increasing temperatures and intensive water consumption.

Giovanni Forzieri, a researcher in climate risk at the European Commission’s Climate Research Centre said: ‘Our research shows that many river basins, especially in southern parts of Europe, are likely to become more prone to periods of reduced water supply due to climate change.

‘An i ncreasing demand for water, following a growing population and intensive use of water for irrigation and industry, will result in even stronger reductions in river flow levels.’

They analysed climate and

BY THE END OF THE CENTURY, SOUTHERN EUROPE IN PARTICULAR WILL HAVE 80 PER CENT MORE DROUGHTS THAN AT PRESENT

hydrological models of different scenarios stretching to the year 2100.

Luc Feyen, a hydrologist at the European Commission said: ‘Scenarios are narratives of possible evolutions - up to 2100 in this study - of our society that we use to quantify future greenhouse gas emissions and water consumption by different sectors.

Climate and water-use models then translate the greenhouse gas concentrations and water requirement into future climate and water consumption projections.’

The scientists used these projected conditions to make a hydrological model of all river basins in Europe that mimics the distribution and flow of water. They found that parts of Southern Europe will be the most affected.

Stream and river minimum flow levels could fall by as much as 40 per cent and periods of drought might increase up to 80 per cent in the Iberian Peninsula, south of France, Italy and the Balkans.

The research, published in the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences also found that average global temperatures will increase by up to 3.4°C by 2100.

Scientists have predicted that dry spells will be longer and more frequent and warned that the warming projected for Europe - particularly in its southern regions - is even stronger.

‘Over the Iberian Peninsula, for example, summer mean temperature is projected to increase by up to 5°C by the end of this century,’ Dr Feyen added.