Science could “rewind” waves to find Malaysia jet black boxes
REUTERS: If two blurred objects photographed from space are confirmed as debris from Flight MH370, scientists will still face a daunting task to find and recover the sensitive recorders containing clues to the Malaysian jet’s disappearance.
With so little known about why the Beijing-bound Malaysia Airlines flight changed course and disappeared after leaving Kuala Lumpur on March 8, finding the “black boxes” is seen as the only real hope of understanding what happened to the plane and the 239 people on board.
Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott on Thursday said objects possibly belonging to the plane had been discovered in the Indian Ocean. The area is around 2,500 km (1,500 miles) southwest of Perth, above a volcanic ridge in waters estimated to be 2,500 to 4,000 metres (8,200 to 13,120 feet) deep.
It roughly corresponds to the far end of a southern track the aircraft could have taken after investigators suspect it was deliberately diverted.
“It can be incredibly rough and difficult. It can be very windy with strong currents, though it can equally be calm,” said David Gallo, director of special projects at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) in Falmouth, Massachusetts, referring to the general area where the objects were seen.
The mystery over MH370 has been compared to the 2009 Air France disaster, which defied explanation until a mission led by WHOI found black boxes in 3,900 metres (12,800 feet) of water.
But whereas investigators knew roughly where Flight AF447 had hit the Atlantic Ocean on a stormy night in June 2009, search crews know much less about where the Malaysian jet has ended up, including whether or where it ran out of fuel.
“If it is confirmed as debris, then the first priority is to recover and record each piece and see how high or low it is sitting in the water. This may help indicate how it has been moved by currents and winds,” said Gallo, who took part in the Air France search.
The immediate problem will be to find the debris, which may have moved since the satellite images were taken on March 16.
It could take “several days” to verify the satellite lead, a source close to the investigation said.
Military aircraft from Australia, the United States and New Zealand have so far found nothing during a search hampered by strong winds and rain. Neither has a merchant ship in the area.
If the objects - the biggest measures up to 24 metres (79 feet) - are from the Boeing 777, recovery teams will work as quickly as possible to locate the rest of the wreckage in the hope it leads them to the data and cockpit voice recorders.
To do this, scientists have developed computer models to “play back” the waves and winds, allowing rescue workers to retrace the movements of debris to the site of a crash.
“There are sophisticated models that allow you to work backwards from the current position of each piece of debris, after considering the currents and the winds,” said Gallo.
“That enables you to say X marks the spot on the surface.”
But not all experts agree computer simulations will easily replace the gruelling routine of searching from air and sea.
Although research has continued since the Air France crash, a detailed annex to the report on that disaster, which was blamed mainly on pilot error, raised questions in 2012 over the consistency of such “retro-drift” calculations.
For example, when the French Navy dropped special buoys at the same spot a year after the crash they scattered hundreds of miles apart, highlighting the turbulence of ocean currents. Race against time If the report of suspected debris is confirmed, naval vessels will drag a sonar through the water to seek the black boxes through radio beacons, but time for this is running out.
The beacons have a battery life of at least 30 days, leaving possibly only 17 days to find them before the signals die.
And for every knot, or nautical mile per hour, of current in the rough waters of the southern Indian Ocean, an object could theoretically float for 312 miles (500 km) in 13 days, the time the Malaysian plane has been missing.
That could present investigators with a much larger potential search area than the 40-mile radius for AF447.
REUTERS: Geely-owned Volvo Car Group returned to a solid profit last year as firmer sales, above all in China, and a firm lid on costs helped it overcome a weak start to 2013 and lingering weakness in the U.S. market.
The company, one of Sweden’s biggest by sales and number of employees, is banking on strong sales of increasingly locally-made Volvos in China to reach a target of roughly doubling sales by 2020 and securing its future in a cut-throat car industry.
The Gothenburg-based company said 2013 operating earnings rose to 1.92 billion Swedish crowns ($301.9 million) from 66 million in 2012, a year in which one-off gains from the sale of technology to its parent helped keep the carmaker in the black.
The sharp rise in earnings came despite Volvo having posted a 577 million loss in the first half and full-year revenues edging lower to 122.25 billion crowns from 124.55 billion.
“This strong turnaround from the first half of 2013 is further tangible proof of Volvo Car Group’s progress in implementing its transformation plan,” the company said.
Volvo, bought by China’s Zhejiang Geely Holding Group Co. from Ford Motor Co. in 2010 amid a deep auto industry crisis, has said it expects sales to grow by “a good” five per cent this year from the 427,840 cars sold in 2013.
China has become a key bright spot for Volvo as it seeks to take on larger global luxury brands such as BMW, Daimler’s Mercedes and Volkswagen’s Audi and generate volumes sufficient to foot the bill for billions dollars of investment in new vehicles.
Volvo’s sales in China shot up nearly 50 per cent last year, leaving it the group’s top market alongside the United States, and it expects new models and a further expansion of its dealer network in the world’s biggest car market to underpin growth.
But while turnover in China have taken off, a lack of new models saw sales in the United States slide 10 per cent last year to stand at only roughly half of what they were a decade ago.
Acknowledging disappointment at progress, Volvo has replaced top management in North America and hopes sprucing up a string of existing models and a launch of its V60 sports wagon will revive sales in the fiercely competitive U.S. market.