Mahinda, Maithripala and 2019 Presidential Poll Candidacy Stakes

As such he would opt for a partnership at Provincial Council or parliamentary polls. It is very possible that the SLPP and SLFP may contest together in a common alliance at the Provincial Council elections when held. But Mahinda is somewhat reluctant or hesitant to back Sirisena as the presidential candidate at this point of time.

There are many valid reasons for Mahinda’s vacillation or procrastination in this matter. In the first place, the political image of Mahinda Rajapaksa has been tarnished by the abortive attempt to gain power through anti-constitutional means. This does not mean Mahinda has become unpopular but his support base has been eroded. He needs time to engage in political salvage and restore his reputation again. In that context Mahinda would prefer an election campaign where he would be the central figure and not a presidential election where -- being debarred from contesting -- he would have to play second fiddle to whoever is the presidential candidate. So he would try and have parliamentary or Provincial Council polls where he would be the chief campaigner on an islandwide basis.

Mahinda also needs time to sort things out before deciding on a presidential candidate. There are tensions and currents within the family circle pulling in different directions. Amicable political relationships between and among family members have to be restored and streamlined. The SLPP is undecided yet but seems to be opposed to an “outsider” being the presidential candidate. Likewise some siblings too are likely to be offended if an “outsider” is selected as a candidate for the presidency. It is also unclear whether Gotabaya will be eligible to contest the presidency. Also, Mahinda does not want any decision arrived at to be challenged before the judiciary. Earlier, he may have been confident about getting favourable verdicts from court, but after being “burnt” recently, he would not take any chances. So he would prolong the time needed to take a firm, final decision on the presidential candidate.

BACKING SIRISENA FOR PRESIDENCY

All these factors are reasons enough for Mahinda’s reluctance to endorse Maithripala’s presidential candidacy at this juncture but there are other important reasons for this delay too. According to informed sources who are to some extent cognizant with Mahinda’s thinking, the former President is now having second thoughts about backing Sirisena for the presidency. There are two broad reasons for this. One is whether Maithripala Sirisena can win the presidential elections even with Mahinda’s backing. The other is whether Sirisena will remain dependable and trustworthy after winning.

Mahinda Rajapaksa is like a wounded lion after the October 26 fiasco. According to informed sources, he is meeting with a cross section of party members, supporters and independent observers nowadays and trying to do a postmortem on what had happened and what went wrong. Much of the feedback, Mahinda has received is rather negative about Maithripala Sirisena. Mahinda being a veteran politician is realising slowly that Maithripala Sirisena does not have a positive image after his political conduct in recent times. He is seen as a selfish, unreliable politician who has made a mess of things. The grassroots supporters of the Rajapaksas perceive Sirisena as a traitor who joined the UNP to defeat Mahinda. Now they view him as a man who took Mahinda for a ride by appointing him premier and causing serious damage to his reputation. The supporters of Chandrika and Ranil look at Maithripala as an ungrateful upstart who betrays all in his lust for power. Civil society sections regard him as public enemy one nowadays.

The little clout enjoyed by Sirisena now is likely to dwindle and vanish after he relinquishes office as President. Some of his current lackeys too may desert him then. If Maithripala Sirisena becomes a presidential election candidate with or without the support of Mahinda, he is likely to be politically-attacked by diverse forces on multiple counts. The various acts of omission and commission by Sirisena will provide lethal ammunition to his political rivals in a presidential poll. The very fact that Sirisena is contesting again as President after promising earlier that he would not contest again and that saying he would abolish the Executive Presidency will work against him. Even if Mahinda supports Maithripala, there is every chance that voters of the Rajapaksa camp may vote against him or not vote at all. Some may even fault Mahinda for supporting Maithripala. Thus Mahinda hesitates as he is unsure whether Sirisena can win.

The second and more compelling reason for Mahinda’s reluctance is the personality and character of Maithripala Sirisena. The general impression after the 19th Amendment was that presidential powers had been downsized and that the Prime Minister post had been empowered. It was on that basis that former President Mahinda Rajapaksa opted to become Prime Minister under President Sirisena. But the unrestrained manner in which Sirisena conducted himself and exercised his real or imaginary powers has demonstrated that the presidency has not been rendered toothless. The legislature and judiciary combined with people’s resistance may have helped countermand the executive power grab but the sordid 51-day tragi-comedy has illustrated clearly the potential of the Executive Presidency to inflict destructive damage to democratic institutions and the polity. Even now, Sirisena is demonstrating that the powers he possesses are yet enough to wreak havoc with the Ranil Wickremesinghe Government.

SIRISENA LIKE DICKENSIAN URIAH HEEP

It is therefore obvious that Maithripala Sirisena would have the capacity to do much harm or good if re-elected as President. Even if he wins with Mahinda Rajapaksa’s support there is no guarantee that Sirisena would be politically grateful or abide by the Rajapaksas after being installed in office. The manner and mode in which Maithripala Sirisena utilised Ven. Sobhitha Thera, Civil society organisations, Chandrika Kumaratunga, Ranil Wickremesinghe and the minority community political parties to climb to the pinnacle of power and later discarded them are clear pointers towards the man’s duplicitous character. The way in which he let down MPS of the UPFA/SLFP who supported him later is another indicator. There was a time when Sirisena like the Dickensian Uriah Heep fawned obsequiously before Chandrika and Ranil saying he would always call them “Madam” and “Sir.” Contrast that utterance with how he treated Ranil and is now treating Chandrika.

Under these circumstances Mahinda Rajapaksa is understandably hesitant about endorsing Maithripala Sirisena’s presidential candidacy. He is reluctant to emulate Dr. Frankenstein and create a “monster” that may run amok again. Aligning with Sirisena and getting the President to break with the coalition Govt and wreak havoc on the Ranil Wickremesinghe Govt may have been acceptable to Mahinda at this juncture but he would not like the same to be done to him by Maithripala in the future. After all Mahinda could not have forgotten how Maithripala partook of an egg hopper and coffee dinner with him and crossed over the next day. Mahinda could not have forgotten how he sent Lalith Weeratunga and Gotabhaya Rajapaksa to meet Sirisena in the morning after hearing that he was planning to jump and how Maithripala solemnly assured them of his bona fides and did the dirty in the evening.

It is against this backdrop therefore that Mahinda Rajapaksa is showing a marked reluctance to endorse Maithripala Sirisena’s presidential candidacy. Mahinda perceived Maithripala as a political asset to fracture the coalition Govt , replace Ranil as Prime Minister , dissolve Parliament and schedule early elections. That political exercise ended in failure and Sirisena’s usefulness is gradually diminishing. As stated earlier the SLPP and SLFP may contest together as part of a common alliance in the Provincial polls but it seems unlikely that the SLPP will back Sirisena in a presidential poll. Maithripala is of utilitarian value to Mahinda as long as he remains the President. Thereafter he is of very little value to the Rajapaksas politically.

INFAMOUS KARAPINCHA/ KARUVEPPILAI TREATMENT

Furthermore, Maithripala Sirisena is fast becoming a political liability to Mahinda Rajapaksa. There may come a time when the Rajapaksas give the infamous “Karapincha/ Karuveppilai” treatment to Sirisena. If and when that happens the ranks of Chandrika, Ranil and even Mahinda may shout jubilantly saying poetic justice has been done! D.B.S. Jeyaraj can be reached at

dbsjeyaraj@yahoo.com