PRESIDENCY AND POWER IN A CHANGING WORLD ORDER
SRI LANKA’S PRIMARY GEOGRAPHIC CHALLENGE IS MANAGING GEOPOLITICAL RELATIONS WITH INDIA – THE REGIONAL HEGEMON, WHO IS WELL ALIGNED WITH THE USA. JUST LIKE IN VENEZUELA, FORMER SRI LANKAN PRESIDENT MAHINDA RAJAPAKSA IS SEEN AS A MISFIT IN THE WESTERN WORLD ORDER
THE TRADE SANCTIONS ECHO THE MANNER IN WHICH THE EU WAS READY TO WITHDRAW ITS GSP PLUS AND SANCTIONS TO FOLLOW IN SRI LANKA. THE SRI LANKAN MILITARY WAS NOT INVOLVED IN THE CONSTITUTIONAL CRISIS; THE SCENARIO IN VENEZUELA WILL BE DIFFERENT, AS THE MILITARY HAS ALREADY TAKEN MADURO’S SIDE AND SUPPORTS HIS PRESIDENCY
We must make ourselves relevant so that other countries have an interest in our continued survival and prosperity as a sovereign and independent nation.” - Lee Kuan Yew
Through broad brushstrokes, this article seeks to understand the changing East-west political negotiations and geopolitical power dynamics through the ongoing Venezuelan crisis in South America and the 2018 “coup” in the South Asian island of Sri Lanka.
Venezuela became an independent country in 1830, following Spanish colonization from the 16th century. Since the first discoveries of oil were made in the Maracaibo basin, it has been the driving force behind Venezuela’s political and economic affairs.
Venezuela’s primary geopolitical challenge is managing its relations with the United States - the regional hegemon. The US is the largest military power in the region but also the largest consumer market and a key destination for Venezuelan crude oil exports.
According to Amy Chua in Political Tribes, the white Venezuelans of European descent, were an example of a market-dominant minority, who were sidelined when Hugo Chavez, a representative of the country’s darker-skinned majority, took power.
Former Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez was seen as a misfit in the Western world order. Chavez built his domestic and foreign policies around the rejection of the hegemonic sphere of influence of the US, while reaching out to the rising Asian global power China and establishing closer links with Russia.
The Asianisation of Latin America is seen to sway to strong geopolitical influences from China. China is targeting US $ 500 billion in trade and US $ 250 billion in investment between 2015 and 2019. It threatens the once subservient nation to the US hegemony since the 19th century Monroe Doctrine.
In a comparative analysis to the island of Sri Lanka, Sri Lanka’s primary geographic challenge is managing geopolitical relations with India – the regional hegemon, who is well aligned with the USA. Just like in Venezuela, former Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa is seen as a misfit in the Western world order. Rajapaksa aligned his foreign policy with China, opening the floodgates to Chinese strategic relations, letting China set its geopolitical footprint upon the nation.
The Sri Lankan polity experienced a constitutional crisis a few months ago. Sources connect the political fiasco to external geopolitical influences in the country. Venezuela was soon to follow in South America, facing a similar fate. This trend could follow to many other nations where the US is slowly losing grip as the sole global super power. Sri Lanka could also revisit this same situation in the coming months and perhaps in the next presidential election.
Geopolitical influences
One cannot ignore the geopolitical influences from external powers. Such influence pushed to bring back Prime Minister Ranil Wickramasinghe and remove Rajapaksa out of office after a short stint, as he was seen as the illegitimate prime minister by the West. The nation had two prime ministers from October 26, 2018 – one accepted by the US and the Western allies and another accepted by China.
In the same way, Venezuela presently faces the geopolitics of external powers. Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was declared illegitimate by the US and its Western allies after his second term election, in which he gained 67.8 percent. This win is widely viewed as rigged, while the interim President Juan Guaidó declared himself as the legitimate leader.
Guaidó argues that as the President of the National Assembly, an opposition-controlled legislative body, he has the constitutional authority to assume power because Maduro had taken office illegally.
According to Bloomberg Columnist Noah Feldman, “The constitutional argument that Maduro isn’t really President is nothing more than a fig leaf for regime change. Even as fig leaves go, it’s particularly wispy and minimal. The US policy is, in practice, to seek regime change in Venezuela. It would be better to say so directly.”
In the same way, in the island, Wickramasinghe accused Rajapaksa calling his appointment unconstitutional and illegitimate. Not having the Parliament majority support, the process of appointment by President Maithripala Sirisena was seen illegitimate.
Back in Venezuela, Maduro is supported and accepted by the Chinese and Russian governments. While the tense situation unfolds, Maduro is consciously escalating the diplomatic tension. He announced the complete diplomatic shutdown with the US government, giving a 72-hour time period for the US diplomats to leave Venezuela. While one president calls for a diplomatic shutdown of the US within the nation, the interim president – Guaidó has invited the US to stay. The State Department has said it will not heed the order to leave the country. It accepts the interim president’s request and rejects Maduro’s order.
At home, in a similar manner, Rajapaksa was rejected by the West with a strong voice from the US. His Cabinet was seen illegitimate, while appealing to the judiciary to restore democracy. Sri Lanka is today at a crossroads. It is deeply polarized. This divide will further rear its head in the upcoming election.
Morally bankrupt
In Venezuela, the Trump administration pressed its case with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo calling on all countries in the Organisation of American States (OAS) to reject Maduro and “align themselves with democracy”, calling the administration “illegitimate and invalid”. Pompeo, in his address to the 35-member OAS said, “His (Maduro’s) regime is morally bankrupt, it’s economically incompetent and it is profoundly corrupt. It is undemocratic to the core.”
A few days after this statement, three European Union nations – Germany, France and Spain were ready to recognize Guaido as Venezuela’s interim president if elections were not called within eight days in a threat to Venezuelan regime. The trade sanctions from the US will follow and isolation from the Western allies will be unfolding over the next several days.
The trade sanctions echo the manner in which the EU was ready to withdraw its GSP Plus and sanctions to follow in Sri Lanka. The Sri Lankan military was not involved in the constitutional crisis; the scenario in Venezuela will be different, as the military has already taken Maduro’s side and supports his presidency.
Just like Sri Lanka is playing a pivotal role in the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative and its close diplomatic and defence relations with Russia, the Venezuelan regime from Hugo Chavez to Maduro has invested heavily in China and Russian relations, which is a direct threat to the regional hegemon, the USA.
Venezuela has also been one of the largest markets for Russian arms exports in Latin America and has signed 30 contracts worth US $ 11 billion from 2005 to 2013, according to the Russian news agency Tass.
In December, Russia dispatched a small group of aircraft to Venezuela in a show of solidarity with Maduro’s government. Two Tu-160 nuclearcapable bombers flew more than 6,000 miles in this exercise.
Overall, it has given Venezuela more than US $ 10 billion in financial assistance in recent years. In exchange, Rosneft, the Russian state oil company, has acquired stakes in Venezuela’s energy sector. Venezuela’s crisis has made it more vulnerable than ever not only due to Russian influence but more towards the Chinese influence, which has put the US economic, security and diplomatic interests at risk.
Economic prosperity
From Maduro’s last state visit to China requesting for more loans from China, China’s loans to Venezuela have grown to US $ 65 billion. However, the Venezuelan economy has staggered in perhaps the same way as the Sri Lankan economy. In the same way, the Sri Lankan leaders have obtained and are seeking more loans from China. These are seen by the West as predatory and debt trap loans.
A few days ago, Sri Lanka celebrated her 71st year of independence from the British colonial rule. Even after 71 years, the policymakers have failed to realize the promises of economic prosperity. What we have today is a broken down nation with less than 4 percent growth.
Three top rating agencies – Fitch, Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s Investor Services – have downgraded Sri Lanka, raising the cost of international borrowing. Fitch has moved Sri Lanka from B+ to B, which leaves it just four notches above default status.
The nation is turning to China and India for financial support as a balance of payments crisis looms over the debt-strapped island.
According to Central Bank Governor Dr. Indrajit Coomaraswamy, both India and China are considering plans to scale up their respective offers to US $ 1 billion, each.
He said, “Sri Lanka’s friends, the two regional giants, have stepped up to support us in this time when we were pushed into a rather difficult corner.”
Power transitions from West to East only prove that it is imperative to calculate external geopolitical interference toward Sri Lanka. Lankan leadership needs to include this discussion in political discourse.