This is a pivotal week for Brexit and four ways it could end
BRUSSELS - Cue up another cliffedge week in Britain’s tangled effort to break free from the European Union. If the whole world went to sleep right now but left the clock ticking, we’d wake up on Saturday with Britain outside the economic bloc. Since the Brits haven’t approved a plan for how to leave, there would be sudden economic and political chaos. The English Channel would be encased in fog.
To prevent that from happening, British Prime Minister Theresa May has been in talks with Opposition Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn, to see if they can come up with a common approach to Brexit. She is also asking European leaders for another Brexit delay, until the end of June. Their discussions start Wednesday at 6 p.m. here in the capital of the European Union and will probably stretch late into the night. Because nothing conveys “emergency” better than late-night talks, right?
Here are a few of the possibilities of where the week could end up:
1. British leaders come up with a plan and look ahead to an orderly exit in May.
After May admitted last week that her own efforts had run aground, she began chatting with Corbyn to see if together they could devise a more popular version of Brexit - one that could get parliamentary approval. Both Labour and May’s Conservative Party are divided over leaving the EU.
In theory, if May and Corbyn strike a deal before midday Wednesday, May could print out 27 copies for the other EU leaders, and bring it down to Brussels for them to sign later in the day. Britain could be out of Europe with an orderly adieu by May 22.
No one expects the speedy scenario to work out.
2. EU leaders deny an extension and cast Britain out on Friday.
This is the one that sets stockpilers’ hearts aflutter - and may keep global investors awake all week. The British pound would probably tank. Parts of France and southern Britain could turn into a parking lot while fully loaded trucks wait for customs officials to figure out what to do.
The loudest proponent of a hardline stance toward Britain is French President Emmanuel Macron.
Reality check: Yes, a sharp break is a possibility. But this outcome seems unlikely. First, German Chancellor Angela Merkel doesn’t want it. She has preferred a more flexible approach that doesn’t force Britain out before it’s ready.
Second, the Irish don’t want it either, and they have a key voice in the European debate, because of their border with Britain’s Northern Ireland. The Irish fear that a hard border would spark fresh sectarian conflict along old lines.
3. European leaders agree to a short delay.
This is what May asked for last week in a message to European leaders that at the same time declared she would hold elections to European Parliament. The short extension is intended to buy more time but also keep up pressure on the British parliament to pass a deal.
May’s request has some sympathy in Brussels - one senior EU diplomat told me last week that her plan was “sensible.” Many here fear an interminable prolongation to the discussions, and would be happy to see Britain leave, if it could be done without too much chaos.
It’s possible that EU leaders ultimately settle on this plan
4. The EU pushes a long delay. Until the end of 2019? A year? Forever?
This is the plan floated by European Council President Donald Tusk. It would set the Brexit date far off in the future. Many European policymakers view this as the least bad of a range of unappealing options. But they think it might just be the easiest way to move forward.
Some policymakers even allow, if you press them, that they wouldn’t mind a forever extension, in the hope that Britain never figures out how to leave the bloc and eventually settles back into its longtime love-hate partnership.