Changed political dynamics likely to reflect on election results
Political dynamics keep changing at every election. Voting patterns are altered accordingly, and it determines who or which party will win at the end. As far as the 2015 presidential elections were concerned, the collective strength of the minority communities- Tamils and Muslims concentrated in the north and the east- turned out to be the crucial factor that impacted the final result. Aversion to the then Mahinda Rajapaksa government- triggered by his indifference to the hard and fast demands by the Tamil parties and communal tension- resulted in the Tamils and Muslims voting en masse for a change. Their combined strength mattered in a bigger way since the voters in most Sinhala majority districts outside the north and the east were split, more or less, down the middle. However, political dynamics that will determine voting patterns this time remain different as evident in the Batticaloa district where the Tamils and Muslims live in equal proportion, more or less.
Unlike most areas outside the north and the east, election frenzy is yet to disturb the sleepy villages of the Batticaloa district. Random posters of the candidates in the fray, put up on walls and poles here and there, indicate the presidential elections. However, voters, particularly in the Tamil majority electorate of Padirippu in the district, show lack of enthusiasm about this time, a situation which is in contrast to their overwhelming participation in the 2015 presidential elections.
The reason is obvious for anyone interacting with them closely. The two main candidates- Gotabaya Rajapaksa of Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) and Sajith Premadasa of New Democratic Front led by the United National Party(unp)- have not committed to accept any of the 13 demands put forward by five key Tamil parties. These include a solution to the political question, the release of those held under the Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA), addressing the question of missing persons, the merger of the north and the east and scrapping the PTA. Tamil people exercise their franchise at presidential elections mostly at the behest of the Tamil parties. The Tamil National Alliance (TNA) ensured Tamil votes en bloc to President Maithripala Sirisena expecting solutions to such matters in 2015, but deliverance was not satisfactory to them. These parties are not satisfied with the performance of the government as far as these issues are concerned. Then, they naturally become points which are no longer sellable in political terms. It has resulted in apathy among voters in the Batticaloa district. In the end, it will lead to low voter turnout as obvious from today’s perspectives.
Let alone, the conduct of voters does not depend only on one aspect. In fact, there are multiple factors that shape the minds of constituents at elections. It is a theory applicable to the entire country, and Batticaloa is no exception.
In the eastern province including the Batticaloa district, discrepancies in development stand out clearly. The Muslim majority areas are better developed than those with a concentration of Tamils. The stark contrast in development is all the more visible. There is reason for it. The Muslim political representatives have been party to the successive governments for decades. It means concerns of their people are voiced louder in Parliament and addressed properly. Finally, the Muslim majority electorates have made giant strides in development whereas the Tamil areas are still in backwaters. It is true that the prolonged war also contributed to the plight of people.
Tamil villages are lagging behind in terms of physical infrastructure and livelihood development. Today is making a wake –up call for Tamil people. They seem to have realized the importance of being party to the governing side to realize their developmental needs. Some Tamils are likely to bear this in mind in deciding on whom to vote this time.
People in Batticaloa felt the brunt of Easter Sunday bomb attacks.
One suicide bomber detonated himself in the Zion Church killing people. It is an incident that widened the communal divide in the district. Today, national security has become a matter of concern for people in that area. That is likely to reflect in them casting their ballots on the day of polling.
TMVP MAKES INROADS INTO TNA VOTE BASE
Amidst alteration of political dynamics in such a way in the district, the Tamil Makkal
Vidudalai Pulihal (TMVP) led by former eastern province chief minister Sivanesathurai Chandrakanthan seems to have made significant inroads into the traditional vote base of the TNA in the district.
Mr. Chandrakanthan is in remand prison over allegations regarding the murder of TNA MP Joseph Pararajasingham during midnight Christmas mass in 2005. But, his party is active. In fact, it got 65,000 votes at the local authorities’ election held on February 10, 2018.
The party is canvassing votes for Mr. Gotabaya Rajapaksa this time. Its General Secretary P. Prasanthan said he was confident that his party could ensure 100,000 votes to Mr. Rajapaksa from the district.
HIZBULLAH, ANURA KUMARA COMMAND SUPPORT
Dynamics in the Muslim majority areas of Batticaloa are different to the Tamil areas, though. The two main Muslim parties- All Ceylon Makkal Congress (ACMC) and Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) - back Mr. Premadasa. So, these parties will succeed in delivering votes of the Muslims in the areas such as Valaichchenai, Oddamavadi and Eravur. It will not be the case in Kattankudy which is the largest Muslim township in the district with a population of more than 50,000. Former eastern province governor
M.L.A.M. Hizbullah who has cut a dashing figure on the political arena in his hometown is contesting the election as a presidential candidate this time. He commands personal following in the area, and is likely to get a chunk of the Kattankudy Muslim vote base.
Besides, the National Front for Good Governance, a political movement formed by the Muslim professionals and intellectuals, has pledged support to National People’s Power candidate Anura Kumara
Dissanayake. It is also a political force to be reckoned with. Both Mr. Hizbullah and Mr. Dissanayake will eat into the vote base which would otherwise tilt in favour of Mr. Premadasa.
At the last presidential elections, President Sirisena who was the common candidate of the Unpled front received 209,422 votes whereas his rival candidate then President Mahinda Rajapaksa polled only 41,631 votes.
The latest changes in political dynamics are bound to reflect a different result this time, but it won’t be a total contrast.
Tamil people exercise their franchise at presidential elections of mostly at the behest the Tamil parties
In the Eastern province including the Batticaloa in district, discrepancies out development stand clearly
Tamil villages are lagging behind in terms of physical infrastructure and livelihood development
Dynamics in the Muslim majority areas of Batticaloa are different to the Tamil areas