Second quarter GDP out in mid-october as COVID-19 delays data collection

GDP figures for 2Q was due by mid-sept. as DCS is bound to release quarterly output within 75 days from end of a quarter

The second quarter (2Q) gross domestic product (GDP) figures are expected to be out by mid-october, after nearly a month’s delay as the pandemic-induced lockdowns had slowed the data gathering and processing to calculate the national output.

The GDP growth figures for the second quarter was due by mid-september as the Department of Census and Statistics (DCS) is bound to release quarterly output figures within 75 days since the end of a quarter.

“There is a delay in receiving data as certain institutions are still in the process of finalising accounts and others in measuring their input and output figures due to nearly two months of lockdowns.

We are in fact still receiving information and we are having discussion with these parties to expedite and finalise the figure for the second quarter,” a highly placed DCS official, who didn’t want to be named said.

“However, we will release the second quarter GDP data by mid-october,” the official added.

Opposition legislator, Dr. Harsha de Silva, who was the former Economic Reforms Minister in a tweet on September 29 weighed in on the delay, suspecting foul play.

“What was (the) #Srilanka GDP growth rate for 2nd Quarter 2020? Dept. of Census and Statistics has to release (the) figure within 75 days of (the) end of (the) quarter; that deadline has now passed. We hear once again certain people attempting to manipulate (the) figure.

Credibility declining. Sad,” he said.

The Sri Lankan economy recorded a surprise contraction of 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2020 as the economy, which was off to a stronger start from January from tax cuts, low interest rates and positive business and consumer sentiments stemming from policy and political stability, remained closed only for two weeks in March due to coronavirus induced curfews.

This sparked debate if the 1Q output figures reflected the true nature of economic activities and thus initiated a discussion between the Central Bank and the DCS to build, “an official and institutional framework to arrive at agreeable methods of calculation through mutual discussion between the two institutions, and other State agencies if they are any which involve in this process,” said Central Bank Governor Prof. W.D. Lakshman.

The two institutions are also working together to come up with new methodologies to capture economic activities, which rapidly shifted into digital and virtual modes due to the lockdowns and social distancing, as traditional data gathering methods are not up to the task.

While the country is expected to record an economic contraction in the second quarter, more pronounced than in the first, due to two-month long economic hibernation caused by the pandemic, the Sri Lankan economy got off to a strong start from June onwards signaling that the country could make up for the lost output during its third and fourth quarters if the trend continues.