THE CASE AGAINST PROLONGED LOCKDOWNS
Experts say that ‘short and strict’ shutdowns have worked, not the prolonged ones
Lockdowns have no doubt stemmed the spread of the COVID-19 virus. But prolonged shutdowns have been a failure, studies across the world have shown. Prolonged lockdowns have not only been difficult to enforce, but have added to the woes created by the pandemic enormously.
In South Asian and Sub-saharan countries, which lack social security systems, daily wage earners and workers in the unorganized sector have sunk further into poverty due to loss of jobs, livelihoods and incomes during prolonged lockdowns. Businesses have faced loss of production and market, and governments have lost valuable sources of revenue. Hoarding has created shortages and a hike in prices.
Sri Lanka has been badly hit by the virus. According to the World Bank’s Sri Lanka Development Update 2021, the Lankan economy contracted by 3.6% in 2020, “the worst growth performance on record.” With jobs lost and earnings reduced, poverty had increased from 9.2% in 2019 to 11.7% in 2020 as per its yardstick.
In September this year, Finance Minister Basil Rajapaksa told Parliament that due to COVID lockdowns, government’s revenue had fallen between Rs.1500 billion and Rs.1600 billion from the estimated amount. Foreign exchange reserves plunged to US$ 2.8 billion, which in turn led to a 9% depreciation of the rupee against the dollar over the past year, making imports more expensive.
The main source of government income has been the duty on vehicle imports, but it had banned import of vehicles in the past year and a half because of difficulties in finding foreign exchange.
This meant that revenue from customs duty dropped to a low level. Lockdowns also caused reduced excise and VAT collections. Revenue from direct and indirect taxes came down by 75% to 80% on a daily basis. The Minister warned that the drop in tourism revenue could be anywhere between US$ 4 billion and US$ 5 billion.
While incomes declined, government spending increased substantially because of relief measures. And salaries and allowances had to be paid to government employees though most were not working.
GLOBAL DECLINE
The problem has been global. The United States saw 72,842 businesses shutting down. Jasper Verschuur of Oxford University, in his paper titled: Global economic impacts of COVID-19 lockdown measures stand out in high-frequency shipping data says that during the first eight months of 2020, the global shipping industry faced 206 million tonnes to 286 million tonnes in volume losses, and US$ 225 billion to 412 billion in value losses.
Prof. Ranjan Ray and Dr. Sanjesh Kumar of Monash University, in their paper written for the Centre for Development Economics and Sustainability (CDES), say that the worst-hit were not people in advanced countries but those in South Asia and Sub-saharan Africa, where nearly 9 out of 10 people joined the ranks of the poor because of lockdowns.
In the case of developing countries, a fiscal stimulus of around 15% of the GDP would have wiped out any downward movement of growth rates to negative territory, but these economies showed a fiscal stimulus of less than 5%, they point In South Asian and Sub-saharan countries, which lack social security systems, daily wage earners and workers in the unorganized sector have sunk further into poverty due to loss of jobs, livelihoods and incomes during prolonged lockdowns out. Inadequate vaccination and relief measures made lockdowns both burdensome and useless.
CHILDREN AND ADOLESCENTS
Shweta Singh and her colleagues looked at the socio-psychological consequences of prolonged lockdowns for children and adolescents in their paper titled: Impact of COVID-19 and lockdown on mental health of children and adolescents: A narrative review with recommendations.
According to the researchers, nationwide closures of schools and colleges have negatively impacted over 91% of the world’s student population.
“The home confinement of children and adolescents is associated with uncertainty and anxiety which is attributable to disruption in their education, physical activities and opportunities for socialization. Absence of the structured setting of the school for a long duration results in disruption in routine, boredom and lack of innovative ideas for engaging in various academic and extracurricular activities,” they say.
The vulnerable population of children and adolescents is quite large. According to UNICEF there are more than 2.2 billion children in the world who constitute approximately 28% of the world’s population.
Those aged between 10 to 19 years (the adolescents) make up 16 % of the world’s population.
Shweta Singh observes that under lockdown, children become more clingy, attention-seeking and more dependent on their parents due to the long term shift in their routine. She goes on to warn that children might resist going to school after the lockdown and might face difficulty in establishing rapport with their mentors after the schools reopen.
“Based on the questionnaires completed by the parents, children experienced disturbed sleep, nightmares, poor appetite, agitation, inattention and separation-related anxiety.
Due to prolonged confinement at home, children tended to use the internet and social media much more, which predisposed them to use the internet compulsively, and to access objectionable content. These could increase their vulnerability to bullying or abuse,” she points out.
One in every 6 children within the age group of 2-8 years have one or the other neurodevelopmental, behavioral or emotional difficulty. Children with special needs such as those suffering from autism, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, cerebral palsy, learning disability, developmental delays and other behavioral and emotional difficulties, encounter peculiar challenges during lockdowns.
“There is an aggravation in symptoms due to the enforced restrictions and the unfriendly environment. They face difficulties in following instructions, understanding the complexity of the pandemic situation and doing their own work independently. With the closure of special schools and day-care centres, these children lack access to resource material, peer group interactions, and opportunities for learning and developing key social and behavioral skills in time. These may lead to regression to past behavior,” Singh warns.
Furthermore, children with autism find it very difficult to adapt to the changing environment. They become agitated and exasperated when anything is rearranged or shifted from its normal position. They might show an aggravation of their behavioral problems and indulge in self-harm.
“It is a huge challenge for parents to handle autistic children due to lockdowns. The suspension of speech therapy and occupational therapy sessions could have a negative impact on their skill development and the achievement of the next milestone, because it is difficult for them to learn through online sessions, as the UNICEF pointed out,” Singh adds.
Referring to the impact of social inequality, she says: “Underprivileged children face acute deprivation of nutrition and overall protection. In India, which has the largest child population in the world with 472 million children, lockdowns have significantly impacted 40 million children from poor families. These include children working on farms in the rural areas, children of migrants and street children. An increasing number of poor and street children now have no source of income, making them vulnerable to abuse and mental health issues. The Deputy Director of ‘CHILDLINE 1098’ India, has said that India saw a 50% increase in calls received on helplines for children since the lockdown began.”
Lack of jobs and income in poor families could manifest in violence against their children. Parental violence can make the child vulnerable to depression and anxiety.
LOCKDOWNS SHOULD BE SHORT AND STRICT
In a March 2021 paper titled: Lockdown fatigue: The declining effectiveness of lockdowns Patricio Goldstein of the Harvard University Center for International Development, says that the world over, experience has been that short-term but strictly enforced lockdowns have been more effective and medically fruitful than longer lockdowns.
Longer ones have been difficult to enforce, have caused greater public misery and generated apathy about the viral threat.
“Lockdowns have a one-off effect that wears off in the long run. To be fruitful, a lockdown should be short and strict,” Goldstein says.