WHEN IS CHINA GOING TO INVADE TAIWAN?
An invasion could be costly and counter-productive to Beijing
The invasion of Taiwan was supposed to happen this year. But China isn’t ready yet. There are several possible scenarios.
It is unlikely to happen in 2025 either, but it’s possible in another five or ten years. China is building five aircraft carriers and that isn’t just for display.
Or, Beijing will decide that such an invasion is costly and counter-productive. It will try to bully Taiwan into submission instead. This process has already started with repeated air and naval incursions into Taiwan’s maritime territory and no-go zones.
HISTORICAL CLAIMS
Why does China want Taiwan so badly? China has historical claims on the island when it was part of mainland China. Apart from that, it’s strategically important, and that’s why the Japanese occupied it and called it Formosa. The government of Chiang Kai Shek fled there after losing to Mao Zedong’s communists in 1949, and since then Taiwan has been an independent country.
Taiwan is part of a strategic island chain stretching across the South China Sea and has already occupied Spratley Islands which belong to the Philippines. The Taiwan Strait is a vital maritime passage and a lot of international maritime cargo, including crude oil, passes through it. Besides, Taiwan has vital industries and makes about 60% of semiconductors used in products ranging from computers to vehicle braking sensors. There are lots of reasons why China wants full control over Taiwan.
SOCIAL MEDIA
But can China invade and occupy Taiwan? Social media, as usual, is flooded with prophesies claiming a Chinese victory, or their defeat, depending on which side you are on. Let’s try and untangle this independently.
China’s military is huge compared to Taiwan’s. The latter makes some of its own weaponry but is dependent on outside sources, mainly the US, for the heavy stuff and aircraft. Just like in the Ukraine, after successful landings are carried out, Taiwan will not be able to fight a prolonged war without outside help. China has nuclear weapons but is unlikely to use them as they need to capture Taiwan’s industries intact.
The US and Japan are Taiwan’s key allies. Military involvement means the US will have to send carrier task forces to the South China Sea, and it will be full-scale war. Japan has pledged support, but it has only just started re-arming after pacifist policies following WWII. Still, it’s an important ally for Taiwan.
TERRITORIAL CLAIMS
The Philippines is hostile, as almost all of China’s South East Asian neighbours are, because of China’s aggressive territorial claims. The Philippines’ military capability is limited, but its vital bases would be available to the Americans. In that case, they will come under Chinese attack, and it will be a full-scale regional war.
There is also the possibility that India too, will get involved. India has sold the Philippines $375 million worth of cruise missiles, the largest ever overseas arms sale for India, and Manila wants stronger ties with China’s biggest Asian rival. Also, the Andaman and Nicobar Islands strategically important to India are not far from the South China Sea. While China is fully occupied with any invasion of Taiwan, India could try to take advantage by opening a second front across the Himalayas.
There is also the possibility that the US will refrain from military action and try the sanctions option. But, as Ukraine has shown us, sanctions are woefully inadequate to stop
nd a determined invader, and China’s military will be better equipped and prepared than Russia’s if war is declared.
DEFENCE PLANS
Taiwan will not be a walkover and has its defense plans. While its airfields are vulnerable, its mountains are formidable natural defences. Let’s not forget that AI (artificial intelligence) too, will play a significant role and it’s only fair to assume that the Taiwanese are as capable as the
Starting a war and losing would be unthinkable to China and Xi Jinping who is now set as president for life. My guess is that, at least in the foreseeable future, China will try to bully Taiwan into submission instead. Beyond that, it could go either way.
Chinese in their ability to hack and jam the enemy’s communication and warning systems. Taiwan’s defense plans depend a lot on missile systems.
But the real war will be between the US and China if the US orders its military to defend Taiwan. Again, there are many conflicting views, and much misinformation, regarding who’s stronger militarily.
In sheer numbers, China has more regular soldiers and is catching up in almost every significant area where it’s lagging. But war isn’t just about numbers.
Air and naval power would be the key to winning or losing. The US has a bigger and stronger navy. China isn’t yet a blue water navy and its strength is limited to the South China Sea. But this equation could change in another decade.
China has to launch a maritime invasion across the Taiwan Straits. Water has always thwarted invaders lacking strong navies. Both Napoleon and Hitler could not invade Britain because their naval power was inadequate. The width of the English Channel ranges from 21 to 150 miles, while the Taiwan Strait is about 100 miles across and has treacherous currents.
When the Allies launched their maritime invasion of German-occupied France in June 1944, many had their misgivings even if the narrowest points were chosen as crossings. Indeed, it was done in stormy weather and could have gone wrong. Many soldiers drowned with their heavy gear before reaching the shore. But US, British and other allied troops had established beachheads by the end of day one. Complete air and naval superiority was needed for this, and they had it.
DECIDING FACTOR
It’s hard to see how the Chinese could be dislodged once they establish beachheads in Taiwan. Control of the seas around Taiwan would be the deciding factor as China needs to maintain its supply chain by sea. For that, the Chinese navy would have to destroy carrier task forces sent by the US.
It’s the US and Japan which established the supremacy of aircraft carriers over battleships in naval warfare. Japanese naval air power stunned the US and its Western allies after Japan attacked Pearl Harbour, and Japan ended the era of British battleship supremacy when Japanese carrier-based bombers sank the battleships Prince of Wales and Repulse off Malaysia in 1942.
The Japanese navy had already proved its ability by destroying the Russian Pacific fleet at Tsushima Straits in 1905. After this setback, Russia didn’t have a blue water navy till the 1970s.
The Japanese Navy’s Zero fighter was superior to any American fighter when the war started. But advanced American technology in other areas played a vital role in the eventual Japanese defeat. The war’s turning point came when Japan lost four aircraft carriers and many well- trained pilots in the battle of Midway. This happened because the Japanese lacked radar, and the decks of their carriers were made of wood.
Both the Americans and the Chinese claim to have a technological edge over each other. But, unlike the Japanese navy in 1941, China’s remain untested in battle. Even China’s ground forces are untested compared to America’s except for skirmishes with the Indian army.
Many American naval vessels are quite old. Presumably, they have been maintained and upgraded. Both navies will depend heavily on missiles of all kinds, and artificial intelligence is the wild impact whose impact no one can predict.
Starting a war and losing would be unthinkable to China and Xi Jinping who is now set as president for life. My guess is that, at least in the foreseeable future, China will try to bully Taiwan into submission instead. Beyond that, it could go either way. In a decade, China will have greater military strength but, like the Japanese in WWII, they could overestimate themselves. American military and economic power could decline. No one knows, unless Nostradamus has said it already in one of his seemingly endless predictions.
Why does China want Taiwan so badly? China has historical claims on the island when it was part of mainland China. Apart from that, it’s strategically important, and that’s why the Japanese occupied it and called it Formosa. The government of Chiang Kai Shek fled there after losing to Mao Zedong’s communists in 1949, and since then Taiwan has been an independent country.
Taiwan will not be a walkover and has its defense plans. While its airfields are vulnerable, its mountains are formidable natural defenses. Let’s not forget that AI (artificial intelligence) too, will play a significant role and it’s only fair to assume that the Taiwanese are as capable as the Chinese in their ability to hack and jam the enemy’s communication and warning systems. Taiwan’s defence plans depend a lot on missile systems.