The likely contenders
Australia are favourites to play India in the final with England being the chief contender – Ranjan Mellawa
The COVID-19 pandemic has thrown a spanner in the works of the ICC World Test Championship schedule – in fact, a few Test series have already been postponed this year. Nevertheless, England beat the West Indies 2-1 and Pakistan 1-0 in back-to-back three home series, thereby closing in on Australia on the points table.
England have 292 points – which is only four points behind Australia (the Aussies are currently in second place) with whom they drew a five match series 2-2. And while England have completed four series, the Australians have played only three so far.
The dominance of Australia and India means that any challenger for the two top positions would need to target around 500 points.
Next for England is the postponed two-Test series in Sri Lanka, having won all three matches played here in 2018. This will be followed by a five Test away series against India. England must win both series quite handsomely to take their aggregate to 500 points – a tall order, it would seem.
India continue to lead the table with 360 points from four series although Australia have picked up the highest percentage of points among the teams playing in the ICC World Test Championship.
Australia will play Bangladesh (two Tests) and South Africa (three Tests) in away series, and a four Test series against India at home. Given Australia’s current form, they’re expected to win at least five of their remaining nine matches, which would elevate them to around 500 points.
India’s next series away is against the
Aussies whom they beat 2-1 in 2018.
However, the Australians were without the then suspended duo David Warner and Steve Smith, and before the emergence of Marnus Labuschagne as a high-class batsman. If Australia were to win the series 3-1 or even draw 2-2,
India’s battle against England at home in a five match series would make it that much harder to reach the magical
500 mark.
Arguably, New Zealand are better positioned than England to qualify for the final. Having 180 points after three series, their remaining series (all twoTest affairs) will be against Bangladesh away, and Pakistan and the West Indies at home.
New Zealand have shone in their recent Asian tours, beating Pakistan in the UAE in 2018 and holding Sri Lanka to one win each last year. They also won 2-0 when they last hosted both Pakistan and the Windies.
Even if they were to draw 1-1 in Bangladesh and win all four of their scheduled home Tests, New Zealand will end up with 480 points – a total that is likely to leave them with a decent chance of reaching the final. And should all six of their scheduled Tests result in a winning streak, then 540 points will be a tough mark for any team to surpass.
After three-and-a-half series, Pakistan are in fifth position with 166 points. Other than the away series against New Zealand, they will host Bangladesh for the final Test of the staggered two-Test series and South Africa.
Sri Lanka are billed to host Bangladesh for three Tests in October followed by England, and engage South Africa and the West Indies away from home. To accumulate 500 points, they need to win a near impossible eight of their remaining nine matches.
With only 80, 40 and 24 points in the bank respectively earned after two series, Sri Lanka, the West Indies and South Africa need an extreme boost in perseverance and performance to qualify for the final. Bangladesh too need an unprecedented winning spree in the remaining matches to keep their chances alive.