TEST CHAMPIONSHIP

The likely contenders

As predicted in this column last month, New Zealand dominated Pakistan and ended a golden Test summer by winning each of their four Tests – two apiece against the West Indies and Pakistan. Though New Zealand have the most number of points (420) at the time of writing, followed by India (400) and Australia (332), they’re third in the standings due to the ICC’s revised rule that it will count win percentages instead of points.

The Kiwis have a win percentage of 70, which keeps them alive in the chase to reach the ICC World Test Championship final.

Australia and India retain the top two spots with percentages of 73.77 and 70.17 respectively – and they would have completed their four Test series down under by the time this edition is released.

After capitulating to Australia’s unrelenting pace attack, falling for a record low score of 36 and losing the first Test, India came back strongly to win the second Test by eight wickets. They then pulled off an iconic draw in Sydney in the third.

Depending on the outcome of the remaining Test, the points table will be subject to another shakeup that may see New Zealand replacing one or the other in the top two positions.

India’s last series in the current World Test Championship cycle will be four Tests against England at home commencing in February – and if they win four matches of the remaining five, they’ll qualify for the final at

Lord’s with a win percentage of 72.22 (520/720).

If India only win three games, they will need to draw the other two to retain a spot in the top two (510/720 =

70.83).

Australia’s next series will cover three Tests in South Africa. If Australia beat India in the fourth Test, they will need to win at least one and draw the other two against South Africa

(428/600 – 71.33).

On the other hand, if the final Australia-India Test is drawn, Australia will need to win two Tests against

South Africa (422/600 – 70.33). If they lose 1-2 to India, the Australians will need a 2-0 result and draw the other match to finish ahead of New Zealand (425/600 – 70.83).

But Australia have yet to confirm their tour to South Africa due to biosecurity protocol issues. If the series doesn’t take place, they will at least need to draw the final Test against India to qualify for the final (342/480 – 71.25). If they lose this Test, Australia will end up with a win percentage of only 69.16.

It’s practically impossible for England to overtake New Zealand on win percentage in the points table. They need to win both Tests in Sri Lanka, and win at least three and draw one against India, which will take their percentage to 71.11 (512/720). It may be somewhat doable against Sri Lanka but they face a herculean task against India.

Others on the table are far off and it’s unlikely that any team from the bottom five will have a realistic chance of finishing among the top two.

New Zealand will now have to sit back and watch how things pan out for Australia and India. Their results against each other and other teams will determine which two teams face off in the final over the coming weeks. It’s a three-way battle in which one will miss out by the barest of margins.

FOOTNOTE Series postponed due to the COVID-19 pandemic have not been considered here since they haven’t been rescheduled.