India and the emerging new North-South power balance
he oath-taking ceremony of the new Northern Provincial Council's Chief Minister C.V. Wigneswaran at Temple Trees on Monday before President Mahinda Rajapaksa signalled what could possibly be a new chapter in the hitherto troubled relationship between North and South. That followed the equally historic event of the Northern Provincial Council (NPC) elections last month that brought the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) into power provincially. These events have been credited with having created an opening for the process of power sharing through which, it is hoped, reconciliation will be advanced.
No sooner had the new Council's board of ministers been announced, the tensions within the TNA erupted into the open. Nine of the 30 TNA councillors reportedly boycotted the provincial ministers' and members' swearing-in ceremony yesterday, including TNA Spokesman Suresh Premachandran. Reports say he held a news conference in Jaffna where he expressed his displeasure with what he called the TNA's 'authoritarian' ways in making these appointments.
The other notable event during the week was the visit by Indian External Affairs Minister Salman Khurshid, the timing of which coincided with Wigneswaran's oath-taking at Temple Trees. It may be recalled that India's National Security Advisor Shivshankar Menon visited Sri Lanka in July, soon after President Rajapaksa's announcement of the NPC election. During these periodic visits by Indian dignitaries, the talks with the Government of Sri Lanka (GoSL) invariably revolve around the 13th Amendment and the devolution of power to the provinces as a basis for a political settlement.
While there are mixed feelings about India's involvement in Sri Lanka's national reconciliation process, it becomes increasingly clear that Colombo needs New Delhi's support to navigate its way through the challenges that lie ahead on the international stage. The Government is no doubt worried about the upcoming Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) at which some western powers have warned they will raise human rights issues. The scrutiny that Sri Lanka is being subjected to in the UN Human Rights Council is another area of concern.
India appears to be keeping the GoSL in suspense as to whether it will be represented by a high level delegation that includes its prime minister at CHOGM. Its participation as the main regional player is seen to be vital for a successful summit. At the UNHRC, meanwhile, India supported two US-led resolutions against Sri Lanka in 2012 and 2013. India has in fact been keeping up the heat on Sri Lanka at the UNHRC. At the council's 24th session in September, where the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights presented an oral update on Sri Lanka, India's delegate said "We encourage the High Commissioner to continue to provide advice and technical assistance" in accordance with the HRC resolutions.
India's support in the international forums will not be secured without a quid pro quo from Sri Lanka. During Khurshid's visit several MoUs were signed relating to the Sampur Thermal Power Project in Trincomalee, which had earlier been resisted by the local power sector. Khurshid also urged the speedy conclusion of a 'comprehensive framework of economic cooperation' also known as CEPA, which is known to have caused concerns in the business community.
On the subject of poaching by Indian fishermen in Sri Lanka's territorial waters, the statements from the two sides have not been in consonance. An Indian High Commission statement said the two ministers of External Affairs agreed to encourage fishermen's associations on both sides to meet to reach some understanding. A statement from the Presidential Spokesman's office based on Khurshid's discussions with the president also seemed to echo this position. But the Sri Lankan Ministry of External Affairs issued a separate statement that referred to the "high incidence of poaching in Sri Lankan waters" and emphasised the need for a deterrent.
It's hard to see how 'fishermen from both sides' would be able to resolve this issue when the Indians are reportedly running a multi-billion rupee fishing industry that in fact depends on robbing Sri Lanka's marine resources. In this situation the terminology suggesting that 'both sides agreed' would seem to be problematic.
A question that arises is, does Sri Lanka really need India to baby-sit its reconciliation process to this extent? Had Sri Lanka seized the initiative soon after the war's end, and taken those same steps of holding the Northern election and delivering on power devolution on its own, wouldn't the GoSL have been spared the indignity of being prodded on to do so now by India, submitting to other pressures as well in the process, in order to secure Indian support in international forums?
On the positive side, a possible indication of President Rajapaksa's priorities was seen at the swearing-in ceremony of Chief Minister Wigneswaran at Temple Trees, where the invitees included several moderates from North and South. Those present reportedly included ministers Vasudeva Nanayakkara, DEW Gunasekera, Tissa Vitharana and Douglas Devananda, PLOTE leader Dharmalingam Siddharthan and former UN ambassador Dayan Jayatilleka. Dr Jayatilleka who was part of the short-lived North-Eastern Provincial Council of 1988, has been one of the most consistent advocates of power devolution as a necessary followthrough to the military defeat of the LTTE.
It's evident that the TNA leadership's decision to make Justice Wigneswaran the Chief Minister has helped to isolate Tamil extremist elements both locally and in the pro-LTTE diaspora. Notwithstanding the TNA's ambiguous rhetoric, the CM's gesture of taking oaths before the president may be seen as an expression of readiness to work towards unity. The GoSL for its part would need to resist the temptation to exploit the teething problems of the newly empowered Tamil coalition. Failure to extend to it the support it needs, would be to invite further external involvement that could disrupt the fragile new power equation that is emerging.