CHOGM: Will it, will it not? It happened!

For months, it was a ‘will it-will it not’ happening scenario in Sri Lanka as the country prepared to host the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM). Plagued by allegations of human rights violations during the end of the conflict in May 2009, and intimidation of the media and NGO activists, Sri Lanka and the Rajapaksa regime have come under constant spotlight in the international arena.

At least leaders from three countries decided to stay away from the conference though Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s non-participation was based more on India’s regional realities (Tamil Nadu pressure ahead of national elections next year) than human rights concerns in Sri Lanka.

After the anxiety, uncertainty and effort by some countries to call for a boycott of the meeting, the event finally took place. More than 20 heads of government attended the meeting and in the Sri Lankan government’s ‘book’ it was a successful gathering.

Ten to 20 years down the road, history will record that Sri Lanka – just like holding the historic Non Aligned Summit in 1976 in Colombo – hosted CHOGM in 2013 without a murmur. Just that! Not the pre-conference issues like the boycott by the Canadian Prime Minister, Singh’s non-appearance, the UNP boycott and the pro-LTTE Tamil diaspora call for a boycott of the meeting. As Prince Charles said at the inauguration, it is the second time in 25 years (after Malaysia in 1989) that an Asian country is hosting this august gathering of leaders from different countries once ruled by the British – praise indeed for Sri Lanka.

The movement is unlikely to make any radical shift in global trade with its discussions in Colombo or transform the movement into a new economic order nor close the wide gap and disparity between the haves and the have-nots in a group of countries where per capita income ranges from US$450 to $50,000! The Commonwealth comprises some of the poorest and richest countries in the world.

However some measure of success could have come from the many contacts visiting business leaders and entrepreneurs had with each other and their Sri Lankan counterparts during the 3-day Commonwealth Business Forum (CBF).

As far as Sri Lanka’s business community is concerned, CHOGM has given wide exposure to the country as a place to invest and trade with and given a fresh boost to tourism.

Since the end of the hostilities in May 2009, the privately-driven tourism sector has been complaining about the lack of a global tourism promotion campaign to tell the world that a ‘new’ Sri Lanka is ready to welcome visitors once again to paradise land.

Apart from attendance at overseas travel marts and exhibitions (UK and Germany in particular) and a few country- specific promotions, the lack of a global campaign has been a weakness in Sri Lanka’s drive to portray the country as a magical place to visit. Though numbers are rising, the travellers are most low-cost visitors and not high spenders, which could have been tackled by a well-funded, well-coordinate country promotion campaign. Separately private sector tourism firms, rather than wait for a state hand-out, have used their own resources to promote the country overseas.

The CBF saw the linking up of many Sri Lankan firms with foreign businesses which hopefully would transform into investment agreements.

Nevertheless one of the weaknesses in the drive to secure foreign investment is that much of the investment in recent times has been in infrastructure development including apartment complexes, malls and entertainment and other services. While investment in tourist hotels will provide employment and generate local incomes and reciprocally improve local communities, other areas of investment also require this kind of input in terms of employment generation and community benefits.

Sri Lanka cannot turn away any investment prospect but the authorities need to whip up interest in large, employment generating investments with attractive incentives – much like what is being offered to mixed development projects in Colombo. That is the only way the provinces can develop in the post-war era.

Economists and political analysts – looking at a new world order where trade plays a bigger role than politics – are suggesting a shift by the Commonwealth to an economic grouping on the likes of other global economic gathering. While this does make sense and could narrow the gap between the haves and have-nots,current economic trends are focused on more regional, closer-home economic groupings like ASEAN, SAARC and the many free trade agreements in Asia and the Pacific. More and more, countries are opting for regional (next-door neighbour-type) arrangements while continuing regional links, as the former brings greater benefits in concessions between countries than with a whole region.

The discussion at the World Trade Organisation, which governs the rules of trade across borders, is also on the growing shift and focus by countries seeking free trade arrangements with close partners than regional arrangements. Furthermore the disparities and expanse of the Commonwealth across several regions makes it difficult to arrive at a consensus in terms of trade arrangements and common benefits.In the meantime Sri Lanka has benefitted enormously by the publicity and the attention this conference has received across the world with the government saying such promotion cannot be measured by the money spent in hosting the meeting. The cost itself was first estimated at Rs. 6 billion, pruned down to almost half at Rs. 3.5 billion but increased again to a total of over Rs.6 billion with new expenditure items.

Given the criticism over the cost to host this event, it would be useful for the government or some research agencies to do an independent, cost-benefit evaluation to assess whether the benefits outweigh the cost or vice versa.