Sri Lankans less optimistic of the economic future now compared to 2011, new survey reveals

The cost of living, from an economic perspective, is what confronts most people in Sri Lanka, a survey by the Social Indicator-Centre for Policy Alternatives (CPA) has said.

The 'Survey on democracy in postwar Sri Lanka' released this month says that a reduction in the cost of living is what most Sri Lankans would like to see as a result of the current development process.

"They also think that it is (a) crucial area the Government must pay attention to. Almost half of those polled claimed that the financial situation in their household has got worse in the last two years and around 30.6 per cent say that they have cut back on the quality of food they purchase. Twenty percent (20 per cent) say that they have not taken medicine or undergone medical treatment at a time it was needed due to financial strain," it said.

This survey was first conducted in 2011 with the 2013 survey being the second wave in what CPA hopes would be an annual survey capturing how Sri Lankans perceive and engage in democracy after the war.

CPA said the objective of this survey is to record public perspectives on democracy in post war Sri Lanka - what it means to people, how they participate in it, their perceptions of the Government and key public institutions. The island-wide opinion poll was conducted in all 25 districts of Sri Lanka.

Given below is the section on "Economy and development" in the report: 36.4 per cent of Sri Lankans believe that the current economic situation is somewhat good while 30.6 per cent believes it is somewhat bad. From amongst those who believe the current economic situation is somewhat bad or very bad, majority (70.5 per cent) state that the Government is to blame for it. 37.6 per cent believe that the general economic situation in the country has got a little better in the last two years, with mainly those in the Sinhalese and Tamil communities holding this view. 26.8 per cent remain fairly optimistic that the general economic situation in the country will get better while 26.3 per cent say that they don't know how the situation will change over the next two years. The upcountry Tamil and Muslim communities are not optimistic about any positive change in the economic situation with 41.1 per cent of upcountry Tamil and 33.7 per cent of Muslim respondents stating that they believe the economic situation will get a lot worse For more than 50 per cent of Sri Lankans, the financial situation in their household has worsened in the last two years, with 31.8 per cent stating that it has got a little worse while 20.9 per cent state that it has got a lot worse. Given the opportunity to allocate money from the National Budget to sectors of their choice, people would choose Education, Health and Agriculture. Majority of respondents believe that the three areas the Government should pay urgent attention to are cost of living, reducing poverty and education. The three main results people would like to see from the current development process are reduction in cost of living, creation of more jobs and better education facilities. 61.1 per cent believe that the Government should give priority to allocating resources to rebuilding the conflict affected areas, even if it means that less money is spent in the rest of the country.

Economy

The current economic situation is somewhat good says 36.4 per cent of Sri Lankans while 30.6 per cent believes it is somewhat bad. It is worth highlighting that almost 20 per cent believe that the current economic situation is very bad. From an ethnic perspective, the Sinhala community remains the most positive with 40.1 per cent saying that it is somewhat good. In contrast 35 per cent of both upcountry Tamil and Muslim communities say it is very bad. From among those who believe the current economic situation is somewhat bad or very bad, majority (70.5 per cent) state that the Government is to blame for it.

Almost 40 per cent of Sri Lankans believe that the general economic situation in the country has got a little better in the last two years, with mainly those in the Sinhalese and Tamil communities holding this view.

Majority of the upcountry Tamil and Muslim communities believe contrary, citing that the economic situation has in fact for worse. 40.1 per cent of the Muslim community and 32.3 per cent of the upcountry Tamil community believe it has got a lot worse in the last years.

26.8 per cent remain fairly optimistic that the general economic situation in the country will get better while 26.3 per cent say that they don't know how the situation will change over the next two years.

The upcountry Tamil and Muslim communities are not optimistic about any positive change in the economic situation with 41.1 per cent of upcountry Tamil and 33.7 per cent of Muslim respondents saying that they believe the economic situation will get a lot worse.

Comparing the 2013 data to the data collected in 2011, it seems that Sri Lankans overall are less optimistic today about the future of the economy.

In 2011 around 60 per cent had a positive outlook ( 21.6 per cent said will get a lot better and 41.5 per cent said will get a little better).

Households

For more than 50 per cent of Sri

They also think that it is crucial area the Government must pay attention to. Almost half of those polled claimed that the financial situation in their household has got worse in the last two years and around 30.6 per cent say that they have cut back on the quality of food they purchase. Twenty percent (20 per cent) say that they have not taken medicine or undergone medical treatment at a time it was needed due to financial strain

Lankans, the financial situation in their household worsened in the last two years, with 31.8 per cent stating that it has got a little worse while 20.9 per cent state that it has got a lot worse. The most affected appear to be upcountry Tamil and Muslim communities as around 45 per cent of upcountry Tamil and 41 per cent of Muslim respondents state that the financial situation in their household has got a lot worse when compared to what it was two years ago.

When feeling a financial strain it is natural to assume that households will have to make certain choices with regard to basic needs. Respondents were asked whether in the last year either they or a member of their household had to make certain cutbacks with regard to food, medicine or housing. While the number of meals per day is the least affected, the quality of food appears to be the most affected with 30.6 per cent saying that they have cut back on the quality of food purchased in the last year while around 20 per cent stated that they had either not taken medicine or undergone medical treatment at a time it was needed.

Development

Respondents were asked about what sectors they would allocate money to if they were given the opportunity and the top three sectors selected were Education, Health and Agriculture.

Choices are similar across the board from an ethnic perspective as well except with the Muslim community which chose the Finance Ministry, with an emphasis on managing the economy, as their second most preferred sector to allocate money from the National Budget.

The Appropriations Bill 2014 which was presented to Parliament in October 2013 showed that the biggest allocation of Rs. 253.9 billion has been allocated to the Ministry of Defence and Urban Development. Ministry of Health was allocated Rs 117.68 billion, Ministry of Education 38.84 billion and Higher Education 29.5 billion.

Respondents were given a list and were asked to select the three most important areas that they felt the Government should pay urgent attention to. The list included infrastructure/roads, agriculture, health, cost of living, crime, corruption, reducing poverty, unemployment, management of the economy, education and flood relief. Overall, the three main areas that were selected were cost of living, reducing poverty and education. From an ethnic perspective, the selected areas differ with the Sinhala community selecting health as the second most important area while the Tamil and upcountry Tamil respondents selected education as the most important priority followed by unemployment.

Compared to data from 2011, cost of living was the top most priority for all communities. For the Sinhala community in addition to cost of living, infrastructure/roads and agriculture were their areas of choice while reducing poverty and unemployment were the important areas for the other three communities.

Since the end of war the accelerated development drive of the Government has been largely concentrated on infrastructure and beautification. Respondents were asked about the three main results they would like to see from the current development process and were asked to select their top three from the following list - reduction in cost of living, improved infrastructure, addressing unemployment/ creating more jobs, developing agriculture, improved healthcare service and better education facilities. Cost of living once again was selected as the most important for majority Sri Lankans, followed by creation of more jobs and better education facilities.

The 2011 data showed the same selections as well, with slight differences with improved infrastructure being the second main result selected by the Sinhala community and improved healthcare being the third main resulted selected by the Tamil community.

61.1 per cent of those polled believe that the Government should give priority to allocating resources to rebuilding the conflict affected areas, even if it means that less money is spent in the rest of the country. This opinion is held by almost 80 per cent of the Tamil community while only 50 per cent the Muslim community believes the same. Around 18 - 20 per cent of upcountry Tamil and Muslim communities think that rebuilding the conflict areas should not be given priority as there are many other problems facing the rest of the country as well. 20 per cent of respondents from both the Sinhala and Muslim communities say they have no opinion regarding these issues. This is similar to the data from the 2011 survey.