Malefic pattern in upper skies bringing disasters

Take out your umbrellas, raincoats and arks – the coming weeks will see deluges that could lead to flooding and other natural disasters, climate experts warn.

The rains ending the prolonged drought will come in full intensity and result in flash floods and more landslides, said climate expert S.A. Norbert, Professor in Geography at the University of Colombo.

He said the continued drought in parts of the country led to high atmospheric temperatures which result in cloud formation. This, added to the high intensity of cyclones in the West Bay of Bengal, would result in heavy rain.Prof. Norbert said predicting the climate was extremely difficult as most of the changes take place in the upper atmosphere.

He pointed to the existence of a “teleconnection pattern”, a climate link of weather anomalies that covers vast geographical areas. Prolonged drought and heavy rainfall in Sri Lanka, flash floods by heavy rains in the United States, floods in south-western China and drought in eastern Australia could be linked in the upper atmosphere, and the pattern of anomalies could worsen with the El Nino effect.

El Nino is a climate pattern across the tropical Pacific Ocean where the ocean temperature goes up by a few degrees, resulting in floods, droughts and climate disturbances in many regions of the world.

Anusha Warnasuriya, the Deputy Director (Forecasting Division) of the Meteorology Department said the second inter-monsoon that will continue throughout this month is expected to bring heavy rainfall to many parts of the island, especially during afternoons and evenings.

“The rains will exceed 100mm, and sometimes accompanied by lightning and thunder. During this month, there are more disturban- ces in the Bay of Bengal. This will lead to storms and mild tornadoes, that will bring strong winds and heavy rainfall,” she said.

Rains are expected in Western, Sabaragamuwa, Central and Northwestern provinces and in the Galle and Matara districts while thundershowers are mostly expected in Uva and Eastern provinces during afternoon or evening.

This week, floods were reported from Wellawaya in Moneragala, Maaspotha, Udubeddawa areas in Kurunegala district, Mahawewa, Chilaw, Mundalama, Dankotuwa, Naththandiya and Madampe areas in Puttalam district.

Disaster Management Centre also warned residents of Deltota, Pasbagakorale, Udunuwara, Ududumbara, Gangawatakorale, Akurana and Galagedara of Kandy district of heavy rainfall.

In Western province, Gampaha district experienced heavy rains, with floods reported in Mahara, Ja-ela and Wattala areas.

According to DMC, 4,000 families from 11 districts are suffering from the effects of heavy rains, with about 1,500 families living in shelters.

The hill country, battered by landslides, also experiences heavy mist. Authorities last week warned motorists travelling on the Hatton-Nuwara Eliya main road and from Hatton to Ginigathhena on the Hatton- Colombo main road to beware of heavy mist and to switch on headlights when travelling on these roads.

The good news is that water levels in 72 reservoirs have increased to 28 per cent.

Due to the drought, water levels had dropped to 12 per cent – the lowest recorded in 13 years – said Janaki Meegastenna, Director (Water Management) of the Irrigation Department.

Current levels are still not enough: the forthcoming Maha paddy season needs reservoirs to be at least 35 per cent capacity, Ms. Meegastenna said.

Heavy rains have caused damage to a section of the Floating Market in Pettah.

Colombo Municipal Council Commissioner Bhadrani Jayawardena said heavy rains will affect the areas bordering the Kelani River.

“Construction work along Duplication Road and many places in the city are to be completed by the end of this year. Heavy rain could cause inconvenience to people using these roads.

“We hope the city would not flood like in the past as flood mitigation measures have been implemented under the Metro Colombo Urban Development project,” she said.