Will the Sirisena-led coup restore democratic balance?

When a workers' uprising in 1953 in East Germany was crushed using tanks, the German poet Bertolt Brecht in a famous poem asked, if people disagree with the rulers: "Would it not be easier In that case for the government To dissolve the people And elect another?" The bitter irony of his words resonates with a brewing discontent in Sri Lanka's political landscape that set the stage for the revolt within the ruling UPFA coalition, and the dramatic turn of events leading to the appointment of an SLFP stalwart, the party's former General Secretary and Health Minister Maithripala Sirisena, as the Opposition's common candidate.

Friday's live-broadcast press conference at the New Town Hall where the announcement was made, showed that this was very much an SLFP event -- the emotional speech of former president Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunge being one of its highlights. Four of the five UPFA defectors were from the SLFP. The UNP and JVP were not represented. This will be the first presidential contest in Sri Lanka where the two main contenders are from the same political party, though they will campaign on different policy platforms. Thus the Opposition's seemingly intractable problem of identifying a suitable presidential candidate has been resolved in a most unexpected manner. The UNP's Working Committee, we are told, has unanimously approved Sirisena's appointment.

Corruption and nepotism

Sirisena spoke of corruption, nepotism and the breakdown of law. The country's entire economy, resources and party management had been hijacked by one family he said. It was evident that the emotionally charged speeches of the various speakers were fuelled by their own feelings of being mistreated and sidelined by the ruling 'clan.' To the extent that it reflects a wider discontent in the populace, the SLFP-led Opposition campaign could give Mahinda Rajapaksa a run for his money. It will also be a contest more intense than it might have been with a UNP candidate.

The recent mob demonstration outside Sadaham Sevana, the Rajagiriya abode of JHU MP Ven Athuruliye Rathana Thera whose party recently quit its positions in government, was the latest manifestation of the deteriorating political culture that the UPFA regime has bred. It has become commonplace for pro-government mobs, sometimes dubbed as 'area residents' ('pradesha vaaseen') materialise out of thin air to attack or demonstrate against entities seen to be 'against' the regime. Not only opposition politicians but ordinary unarmed citizens demanding their rights have had to face this type of backlash. The most notable such episode was in Rathupaswela where at least four died when the military opened fire on protesting villagers who were demanding clean water. Many have warned that such incidents signal an unwarranted militarisation of society, a dictatorship in the making.

These trends relate to a key aspect of the criticism levelled against the Rajapaksa government in its second term, particularly with respect to the concentration of power in the executive. The 18th Amendment did away with term limits on the presidency and the independent commissions, and compromised the independence of the judiciary. The Bar Association's president Upul Jayasuriya has argued that the very process by which the Supreme Court delivered an opinion on Rajapaksa's eligibility to contest a third term, demonstrates how pres- change? This uncertainty cannot be lost on the voters. It would seem then that Sirisena is asking the voter to give him a blank cheque. For the Opposition to run a convincing campaign on the 'abolition' platform, the anticipated cross-overs will have to take place, in sufficient numbers, before the election.

A toss-up

A key question in this election will be whether Sirisena will be able to draw the UNP base vote, which still represents the lion's share of the opposition constituency. Another question is, how will Sirisena's SLFP supporters react to his promise to make Ranil Wickremesinghe prime minister? This could cut both ways -- winning him some UNP votes but losing him potential SLFP and JVP support.

It's worth noting that despite the decisive and dramatic nature of the UPFA revolt, some of those who left the coalition seemed to do so with regret. SLFP MP Wasantha Senanayake sought to introduce certain reforms, but found that his pleas fell on deaf ears. There is a note of sadness in MP Rajiva Wijesinghe's parting letter to the president, where he refers to areas where the government had failed to deliver."It would be tragic if the tremendous achievement of 2009 were to be squandered," he said.

President Rajapaksa still remains one of the country's most popular leaders ever, respected even by his detractors for having put an end the scourge of terrorism. For this reason the outcome of the election will still be a toss-up. It was left to the JHU's Rathana Thera to tell him some 'home truths' - the country is being run by one family and its cronies, good governance has been thrown to the winds, and enough is enough.