US trumps China in the IndoPacific, Sri Lanka pays the price

Welcoming US Secretary of State John Kerry at the Foreign Ministry last week, Foreign Minister Mangala Samaraweera said "today is just the beginning of a very, very special relationship between Sri Lanka and the United States." What does this mean? Surely it does not simply refer to the fact that the US's top diplomat was visiting after ten years. Those in government circles who are reacting to this event as if it's the best thing since sliced bread, need to be reminded perhaps that there is no free lunch. There will be a price to pay, and the foreign minister is signalling that he's more than ready to oblige.

Lavishing praise on the UNP-led government's policy orientation, Kerry in his speech to politicians and civil society representatives at the Hotel Taj Samudra flagged the importance of the Indian Ocean as the 'world's most important commercial highway.' He said "...with its strategic location near deepwater ports in India and Myanmar, Sri Lanka could serve as the fulcrum of a modern and dynamic Indo-Pacific region." He said the US saw its role 'partly as a leader:' "The United States is already providing leadership on maritime security in the India Ocean in association with close friends and allies across the region …"

Challenging China

The role spelt out by the US directly challenges that of China, which, under President Xi Jinping has been actively promoting the concept of the '21st Century Maritime Silk Road.' Xi's maritime diplomacy seeks to restore connectivity in the Asian region by reviving the trade routes and maritime culture associated with the historic Silk Road, which linked China to Africa to the Mediterranean in ancient times. Sri Lanka's previous government had pledged support to the Silk Road initiative.

Kerry in his Colombo speech went on to refer to maritime security issues of piracy, drug trafficking and disaster/humanitarian relief. In these areas too, China has been playing an increasingly active role on the world stage. We may recall that it was China that evacuated the Sri Lankans stranded in wartorn Yemen recently. When a Chinese submarine docked in Colombo port causing controversy, the Chinese embassy in Colombo went to great lengths to dispel suspicions and explain that its mission related to anti-piracy operations off the Gulf of Aden.

Kerry spoke of the US "promoting the Indo-Pacific Economic Corridor to connect South Asia to Southeast Asia and to spur sustainable growth in both regions." Clearly there is a bid on the part of the US to displace China's attempted leadership role in the region and in establishing regional connectivity. When Kerry informed his audience that the US and Sri Lanka were 'working together to oppose the use of intimidation or force to assert territorial or maritime claim by anyone,' here again the reference was to China. The Asian giant is accused of intimidating its smaller neighbours in its maritime territorial disputes in the South China Sea and East China Sea.

Superpower in the equation

Responding to the solitary question permitted to a local journalist at the press conference following the talk (on why his visit may not be seen as 'interference in Sri Lanka's internal affairs') Kerry asserted that "the United States is not here to ask Sri Lanka to align with anyone, to refuse to have any other relationship…" He pointed out he is here at the invitation of the president, prime minister and foreign minister. In other words, the Government has willingly allowed the superpower into the equation.

It's worth noting that when Kerry asked President Sirisena about Sri Lanka's relations with China and India, the President had replied that Sri Lanka 'strictly followed a nonaligned foreign policy' and that his government 'would not allow the relations with one country to affect the relations with another country in any manner.' India is the closest neighbour with whom there was a special relationship, and China was a development partner that had made heavy investments in Sri Lanka, the president had noted.

Do these remarks point to some dislocation between the President's and foreign minister's perspectives on Sri Lanka's foreign relations? The disruption of the 16th session of the UN Working Group on the Right to Development two weeks ago in Geneva was because Sri Lanka's foreign ministry reportedly blocked the re-appointment of the chairperson-rapporteur, Tamara Kunanayakam, the nominee of the Non Aligned Movement for the past three years. The move discredited Sri Lanka's status within the NAM when even the EU and US had been ready to support Kunanayakam. Another line of speculation, according to sources familiar with the issue, is that there was US pressure on NAM's chair, Iran, to disrupt the Working Group, with some help from Sri Lanka. Iran is on the verge of reaching a deal with major powers over its nuclear programme, and desperately needs to have crippling US sanctions lifted.

Re-branding the image

Samaraweera in his recent speeches has sought to classify Sri Lanka as an 'Indian Ocean country' rather than a 'South Asian country,' on the basis that this re-profiling would help attract FDI (Foreign Direct Investment). It seems a strange argument considering that Sri Lanka's biggest investor has been China. Western states, in fact, do not have the kind of money China has, to invest in infrastructure etc., as China has done. Does Samaraweera's attempt to de-link the country from its South Asian identity point to a desire to re-position it, to suit US maritime objectives in the region? Under the US 'Pivot to Asia' the US's strategic focus has shifted to the IndoPacific, where it hopes to locate 60% of its naval assets by the year 2020. This too relates to countering the rise of China.

While Samaraweera is busy rebranding the country's image to suit US strategic goals, Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe seems to be intent on redefining Sri Lanka's military. In a 'letter' dated 07.05.15 addressed to Chief of Defence Staff Gen. Jagath Jayasuriya, copied to the three service chiefs, he advises the CDS of Kerry's proposed new role for Sri Lanka's military in protecting Indian Ocean sea lanes and participating in UN peacekeeping missions. Wickremesinghe asserts that Kerry's view of the military's role is endorsed by the Government. Two questions arise. Is there agreement among all sections of the 'national government' on this redefinition of the military? And is the PM with this patronising gesture arrogating to himself the role of the President, who is the Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces?

Subtle shift

Sri Lanka will not just swap China for the US as its 'very, very special' partner. Kerry told the press that his discussions had 'a particular focus on the Government's reform and reconciliation agenda.' The most significant development in this area since the new Government took over is that there has been a concession to 'working with' the UN in the matter of setting up a domestic mechanism for the investigation of alleged war crimes. There has been a subtle shift away from the domestic mechanism strictly under Sri Lanka's jurisdiction, which was promised in the run up to the election and immediately after, to a 'joint mechanism' of sorts. The shift is evident in the language used by both Samaraweera and the western governments he seeks to appease (mainly the US).

For example, in his letter to UN Human Rights Chief Zeid al Hussain in February seeking postponement of the OHCHR report on Sri Lanka, Samaraweera said, "The government looks forward to working with you and your office to develop this mechanism and obtain technical assistance." The US Secretary of State in Colombo expressed the hope that the Government "will continue to cooperate with the UN" in setting up a domestic investigation that meets international standards. Is this sacrifice of sovereignty part of the price agreed upon in return for a deferral of the OHCHR report?

"… Everything that we are talking about, we are offering, not demanding. Everything that we have suggested is exactly that - a suggestion," Kerry told reporters. With the 'Sword of Damocles' hanging over the country in the form of the OHCHR war crimes report to be released in September - in a game played with loaded dice - does this sound like one of those 'offers you can't refuse?'