Brits confound politicians, pundits and pollsters

It was an extraordinary election result that stood predictions on the head and decimated political parties and politicians as never before. At the end of the day, three party leaders had resigned, accepting personal responsibility for the defeats suffered and incumbent Prime Minister David Cameron did not have to call removal vans to the door of No. 10.

It was a day that nobody who appeared on TV talk shows, the media across the board and analysts had predicted. Up until May 7, the day of voting all polls forecast a deadlock, the final one called the "Poll of Polls" showing that the two main parties, Conservatives and Labour, in contention to form the next government were neck and neck.

That was the widespread prediction on the morning of voting day. But unknown to pollsters and pundits in the media and academia, there has been a stirring in the public mood that had gone undetected and came together at the very last minute when minds were finally made up particularly among those many remaining undecided.

The first indications of a huge shift in voter preference came at 10pm on Thursday when the BBC flashed the results of an Exit Poll undertaken for the broadcaster by John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University. It gave an entirely different picture of what might be the results, driving some politicians into near apoplexy.

Paddy Ashdown a former leader of the Liberal Democratic Party and now a party grandee so outraged by what he saw told TV presenter Andrew Neil that no way could that exit poll be correct and if it is, he would eat his hat on the show.

It did not come to that as far as we know but his dismissive words were not without point. For the results of the exit poll showed that the LibDems would be reduced from 50-odd seats in the last parliament to a rump of 10 seats. In the event 10 seats were a little generous as it ended up with eight seats at the final count.

The Labour Party hierarchy was equally shocked. Here was a party hoping to send its leader Ed Miliband to No.10 and form a government. It might not have had the numbers required at the end of the day but its thinking was that even if the Conservatives were able to form a minority government it would not have the support of other parties to carry through the Queen's Speech and would lose any vote.

That would provide the opening for Labour unless the results were so close that Labour could make a pitch to form a government leading to haggling and a tug-of-war between Conservatives and Labour. In the absence of a Constitution, the Cabinet Manual would be the constitutional 'bible' that would have to be followed in such an event.

According to the exit poll, Labour would win 239 seats losing almost 40 it held in 2010. That seemed preposterous to Labour supporters who were expecting close to 290 seats to give it a chance to form a government. Actually, Labour ended up with 232 seats, lower than the exit polls indicated.

The same poll gave the Conservatives 316 seats, just 10 seats short of an overall majority. But as it happened the Conservatives swept in with 331 seats, giving David Cameron an overall majority and not needing to go into coalition as he did with the Lib-Dems after the 2010 election.

Perhaps the most spectacular moment of this election is what happened in Scotland, where Nicola Sturgeon-led Scottish National Party (SNP) simply brushed away opposition and in a political tsunami won 56 of the 59 seats. The exit poll had predicted 58 seats for SNP.