Road to conflict
“China has taken a very stubborn attitude, and there is little appetite in India to accommodate China’s behavior,” Patil said.
Modi had come into office with high hopes of building Sino-Indian relations; experts called him the most pro-China prime minister since the two countries’ 1962 border war. Xi met Modi in India in 2014 shortly after the latter was elected, in the first visit by a Chinese leader in eight years.
Instead, the two nations have become increasingly suspicious of one another. During Modi’s recent visit to the United States, a deal was struck to buy surveillance drones that could be used to monitor Chinese naval activity in the Indian Ocean. In April, China fulminated over the Dalai Lama’s tour of Arunachal Pradesh in northeast India, known in China as south Tibet. China considers the Dalai Lama an opponent and a separatist whose power threatens its control over Tibet.
India also refused to join China’s “One Belt, One Road” program, a massive infrastructure project involving 70 countries aimed at reviving old Silk Road trade routes. Plans include an improved connection between China and Pakistan and would allow Pakistan access to other countries in Central Asia.
China, on the other hand, blocked efforts to designate a Pakistan-based militant outfit, Jaish- eMuhammad, as a terrorist organization. It has also stood in the way of India’s bid for membership in the Nuclear Suppliers Group, an organization of countries that supply — and control — the export of nuclear materials, equipment and technology.
China has billions of dollars in investment deals with Sri Lanka and Nepal and this year took part in a joint military training exercise with Nepal. India considers both neighbors to be allies.
“I think the root cause is that the Chinese feel that their moment has arrived and that they do not need to accommodate Indian interests in any way, given the huge power differential in their favor,” said India expert Ashley Tellis, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “Chinese suspicion that India was casting its lot entirely with the United States has only intensified Beijing’s determination to be even less accommodative towards New Delhi.”
Politically, neither Modi nor Xi can be seen to be giving in to the other’s demands. Modi’s nationalist government has insisted upon maintaining the integrity of Indian borders, banning maps and representations of disputed regions in the north. Xi, too, cannot be seen to be relenting on what the Global Times called “unruly provocations” from India, as he prepares to face a Chinese Communist Party conference in the fall.