Plantation share rise –recipe for a potential bubble

With high tea prices recorded over the past three months, retail traders are grabbing onto plantation shares, alarming regulators as this can be a potential bubble, analysts say.

“There’s a bit of good news on the plantations sector as tea prices are high and their June quarter results have been good. So, the retailers extrapolate tea prices and gauge the values of these stocks, which may be not so good news in the long run,” an analyst told the Business Times.

Another analyst added that there’s certainly a fundamental backing in the rise of these shares, with tea prices at auctions in August averaging Rs. 606.86 per kg, up from Rs. 473.78 a year ago, as per a Forbes and Walker Tea Brokers report. Prices of teas from all three elevations rose during August with the biggest gains in the high grown varieties. But this rise in shares shouldn’t last long. “A little bit of good news in an illiquid sector like this will send prices up,” he added.

Share of Lankem Developments from June 30 to September 28 rose by 230 per cent (from Rs. 3 per share to Rs. 9.90). A share in Madulsima Plantations which was Rs. 6.70 and went up to Rs. 15.50, a 131.34 per cent surge during the same, corresponding period. A share at Udapussellawa rose by 123.08 per cent, Malwatta up by 121.43 per cent, Colombo Trust Finance by 106 per cent and Balangoda Plantations by 106 per cent during the said 3- month period.

It’s a volatile sector and retailers should exercise caution, a regulator told the Business Times. While this isn’t a replica of the 2010 era when the mafia stumped the market with pump and dump in dud shares, prolonging these share hikes could be a recipe for disaster, she said.