America's Trump card diplomacy and its residual ripples
Around the world, President Trump is possibly the most disliked, criticized and misunderstood American leader ever . According to President Trump,the media is much to blame for this state of affairs. There is some truth in this.
Take for example the reaction to the recent “historic” summit between the US President and the North Korean leader which has been hailed by the Republic of Korea and China as the closest neighbours standing most to gain from North Korean disarmament and sustainable peace in the Korean peninsula, yet the overall international media coverage suggests that the US President gave more concessions than necessary and that the North Korean leader had scored a propaganda victory at home and abroad.
President Trump has had to defend himself and speak about the benefits from North Korea opening up – the economic harvest to foreign companies especially in the tourism and leisure area ( where the Trump family has financial and managerial interests), the dividends from “bringing back our boys” from bases in the ROK and stopping the costly joint “war games” .
There is a certain theatrical atmosphere about President Trump’s political gyrations, perhaps designed to give him maximum visibility and to reinforce the image of the US as the “tough” global superpower. Thus some uncertainty was caused before the summit by its abrupt cancellation then it was re-scheduled in a manner drawing all the world’s attention. The “success” of the summit has importance for the US President, as there is a chance he will be nominated for the Noble Prize, an incentive few leaders would refuse (incidentally, in an earlier time Congressman Steve Solarsz had lobbied President Jayawardene to make peace with the Tigers offering the same carrot). Such a powerful global recognition will go a long way to balance the criticism leveled against Mr Trump for opting out of international agreements like the one on climate change. Opting out of climate change commitments has moreover enabled the domestic oil industry to flourish, some say the US will become the number one producer in the world in a few years, changing the strategic dynamic of previous dependence on foreign oil.
Trade is another area where Mr Trump’s policies have met with heavy criticism from foreign governments and experts, characterized as ideas derived from an earlier era and out of whack with the present trends of globalized production and marketing. For example, imposing tariffs on Chinese goods is likely to provoke retaliation, so it is difficult to see what is the advantage except to shore up local patriotism . President Trump is in fact a creation of the rising tide of nationalism which is opposing the forces of globalisation everywhere. The problem is that when he puts America first, it also means stepping back from working with others, traditional friends and allies like Canada and the G7 whose support and solidarity may have been a better way to combat unfair trade practices. However, standing up alone is an American value epitomized by movie heroes like John Wayne and Rambo.
President Trump is not just “unpredictable” or a “loose cannon” but has to be understood in the frame of what is his main objective, to carefully cultivate his political base at home. Unlike any other politician, he is working constantly on keeping his campaign pledges to the electorate with his re-election campaign in mind. One could argue therefore that it is the President’s determination to keep his campaign promises and not his failure to do so which is dividing public opinion so strongly within America especially between recent migrant arrivals and long established residents. A good many Americans believe President Trump “tells it like it is” and welcome his undiplomatic manner of speech and strong arm tactics with foreign nations which they believe have taken unfair advantage of American generosity. President Trump’s method of direct communication through social media is building this direct link with his constituents and support base thereby avoiding the criticism of other commentaries.
However, the checks and balances in the US political system, which give weight to both Congress and an independent judiciary, are hindering President Trump’s efforts to meet his campaign pledges for example to repeal Obamacare, restrict immigration and child arrivals, block the merger of AT& T and Time Warner etc. Ironically, it is in foreign affairs that the US President has most powers to act independently and he has acted on his pledges to cancel the nuclear agreement with Iran, shift the US Embassy to Jerusalem and with- draw from international agreements which are said to be unfavourable to the US like TPP or Climate Change.
Perhaps the most serious threat to the Trump Presidency is quietly building in the investigations (still to be revealed) of the independent prosecutor who is looking into possible Russian meddling in the last Presidential election and any connection with the Trump campaign. This is why the forthcoming Congressional elections are being so keenly watched because the Democrats will have to regain control of the Lower House if they want to launch any impeachment motion based on the investigation findings. The positive momentum in the US economy will help Republicans who are claiming that new jobs and productivity have been achieved through tax cuts, while the Democrats are countering that the strong economy is due to the good economic management of the previous Obama era. The question faced by the US voters is how to balance growth and good business with humanitarian concerns as seen in the plight of hundreds of underage children being taken away from their parents who had illegally crossed into the US from Mexico. The First Ladies present and past are weighing in to criticize this measure. It is not something new for Americans who while subscribing to the work ethic and success in business, on the other hand uphold the notion of “manifest destiny” which champions moral values such as freedom, equality and justice.
It is also worth remembering that President Trump’s maverick behaviour and precipitous moves in the international arena are only possible for the global superpower and that small and vulnerable countries are better off with traditional diplomacy and courtesies which are the norm under a liberal rules-based international order. Under the liberal world order, the open market economy has become the inevitable driver as borne out in the changes embraced by Cuba and North Korea, albeit in their own style. It is curious though that as these countries which held out for so long now join the international community, the one who led the globalization movement, the US, is opting out!
The rejection of the liberal international order under President Trump is reflected in the US decision to quit the UN Human Rights Council with their UN Ambassador calling it a "hypocritical and self-serving organisation".
There are many in Sri Lanka who will agree with that description given the public discontent over the HRC focus on the Sri Lankan issue.
With the exit of the US which had led resolution 30/1, Sri Lanka may now have an opportunity to put in place some quiet diplomacy to get the Sri Lankan issue folded into the Universal Periodic Review which covers all member states equally.
( The writer is a retired Foreign Service diplomat)