International Security Order: Kaput
The Munich Security Conference ( MSC) that began in 1963 to discuss foreign policy issues of the United States and NATO members is now the largest international security conference.
This year’s conference, held from February 15 to 17 under the theme “The Great Puzzle: Who will pick up the pieces?”, was attended by 500 participants including 40 presidents and heads of government and 100 foreign and defence ministers from Atlantic nations to BRICS and the Middle East.
The US had the largest delegation of 50 bipartisan Congress members headed by Vice President Mike Pence.
Conflicts that threaten peace and security
Ahead of the MSC, its Chairman Wolfgang Ischinger, wrote, “When Vladimir Putin annexed Crimea and started the bloody conflict in Eastern Ukraine in 2014, many considered him to be the major cause of global destabilisation”.
“Nobody could have known”, Ischinger wrote “that just a few years later the US President, of all people, would seriously challenge the current international order. Donald Trump questions free trade just like he questions the Western set of values or NATO. This has massive consequences – not just for us Europeans.”
“The whole liberal world order appears to be falling apart,” he added. “We have to think about how we can preserve the core pieces of the international order.”
There are a plethora of “destabilising” issues: Europe’s defence policy, WestRussia relations, Ukrainian crisis, conflicts in the Middle East, the US withdrawal of its forces from Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan, Trump’s demand of 2 percent of GDP of European countries to NATO budget, Trade and Tariff wars, Brexit chaos, increasing right- wing populism around the world, and the rapidly brewing “regime change” in Venezuela, to name a few.
The security has been further threatened by Trump’s upending of the carefully crafted multilateral agreements such as the Iran Nuclear Agreement ( JCPOA), the Intermediate- Range Nuclear Forces ( INF) treat y, the Trans- Pa c i f i c Partnership (TPP), and the Paris Climate Change Agreement.
Also the ongoing devastation of Yemen, countries crossing sovereign borders in violation of sacred international law to poison the Skripals in Britain, and the gruesome murder of Journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Turkey have exacerbated the security around the world.
These conflicts caused by power- hungry politicians embroiled in a power competition between the US, China, and Russia are plunging our world into an abyss of permanent conflicts, threatening peace and security around the world.
As the Second World War was erupting, President Franklin D. Roosevelt said “When peace has been broken anywhere, the peace of all countries everywhere is in danger”.
Dialog or Confrontation
Divergent comments during the MSC give us a clear picture of what is at stake.
Lamenting that the US- led global order “has collapsed into many tiny parts”, German Chancellor Angela Merkel presented a robust defence of her approach to foreign policy, in particular her commitment to multilateralism, the rulesbased order and to diplomacy.
Merkel rebuked the spirit of Trumpism ( without actually naming him) by declaring that “all the world’s crises boiled down to one question: Do we believe in multilateralism, as difficult and slow as it might be, or not?”
US Vice President Mike Pence referring to Trump as the leader of the free world, said, “We came here to reaffirm our commitment that ‘America First’ does not mean America alone and tell leaders, allies and countries around the world that America is stronger than ever before and America’s leading on the world stage once again”. No applause!
He told the audience: “I bring greetings from the 45th president of the United States of America, President Donald Trump.” Noticeably, no applause!
Pence demanded that “our European partners must withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal”, and condemned the Nord Stream 2 oil pipeline between Russia and Germany.
Alluding to Turkey’s plan to buy the Russian S- 400 missile defence system, Pence said, “We will not stand idly by while NATO allies purchase weapons from our adversaries.” He said, “We cannot ensure the defence of the West if our allies grow dependent on the East.”
Pence said that under Trump’s leadership, the US has made it clear that “China must address the longstanding issues of intellectual- property theft, forced technology transfer, and other structural issues in China that have placed a burden on our economy and on economies around the world.”
Referring to the Venezuelan crisis, Pence described Trump as a “champion of freedom” and asked European countries to join the US in confronting the regime of Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela.
The British Prime Minister Theresa May said that “Swiftly after [ Brexit] departure in 2019, we will come out of the EU’s Common Foreign and Security Policy. We will have a truly independent and sovereign foreign policy”.
Russia was targeted by many speakers. British Defence Secretary Gavin Williamson accused Russia of making the world a less safe place, and German Defence Minister Ursula von der Leyen said Russia was dividing Europe. But, in general, there was less criticism than in the past.
Yang Jiechi, director of China’s Foreign Affairs Commission said, “History tells us that we can only realide our people’s dreams for a better life by upholding multilateralism, and enhancing global cooperation.”
Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov accused NATO for its “expansion” into Russia’s borders causing unprecedented tensions as both sides expand military deployments and drills. He held a series of bilateral meetings with foreign leaders.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova complained about US inconsistencies on every issue. She said the US with its military and economic power “failed in the Middle East”, and that “it did not resolve any world crisis, anywhere”. She hinted that “the main purpose of the MSC was to demonise Russia”.
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who dramatically displays objects at meetings to prove his point, brandished a piece of “drone debris” from an Iranian drone, and called Iran a “grave danger to the Middle East.”
Iran’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif hit out at the US and Israeli “fixation” on his country.
A new world order - in the making
Closing the conference, its Chairman Wolfgang Ischinger offered a bleak conclusion: “We have a real problem.”
Yes, a problem -- perhaps not new. In addressing the same forum in 2007, Russian President Vladimir Putin predicted that the Western system of alliances -- with its “one master, one sovereign” sitting in Washington, D. C. -- would eventually “destroy itself from within”. Now, will that prophecy come true?
The divergent statements and rejoinders -- even contempt and innuendos -- of participants proved beyond doubt that the US is at odds not only with Russia, China and Iran but also with its allies.
Despite US objections, Europeans are building bridges to the East. Major projects such as Russia’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline and China’s Belt- and- Road initiative are gaining trust and confidence in those countries, even though Pence warned the Europeans that they would only hurt their own security by making deals with Russia and China.
Ischinger wrote: “The grim picture is not drawn out of thin air. As certain Western countries turn to self- centered and confrontational mentalities and show little interest in fulfilling international responsibilities, unilateralism, isolationism and trade protectionism are bearing bad fruit.”
Current conflicts around the world prove that the influence of the US and Europe is waning, and the major powers ( Russia, China, and the US) are competing for economic and military supremacy.
We can only hope for a rules- based international order for peace and prosperity in the world.
(Somar Wijayadasa, is an International lawyer and was UNESCO delegate to the UN General
Assembly from 1985-1995, and Representative of UNAIDS at the United Nations from 1995-2000.)