President runs out of options, only one choice now

With his manoeuvres failing, Sirisena may settle for an SLPP-SLFP alliance, where he is not the candidate, but gets a suitable place Drops plans for non-binding referendum amid opposition even from his own SLFP members; CBK keen that SLFP should not wither away Presidential election likely to be between two main candidates – Gotabaya and a UNF-backed nominee

President Maithripala Sirisena’s political metamorphosis continues with just over four months to go for this year’s presidential election.

Here are a few passages from his most recent political Wish List:

First: His Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) sought a joint political alliance with the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), so he could be their presidential candidate. It became a mirage as there was increasing reluctance. The shaky dialogue continues on other issues, but the chances of his becoming presidential candidate are zero.

Second: He told the United National Party (UNP)-led Cabinet that he would not back a joint coalition alliance and would support a “winning candidate” within their ranks. The news spread fast and triggered speculation that he had worked a deal to foist another UNP presidential candidate. If indeed there was such a move, nothing happened.

Third: Incensed by his announcement to the Cabinet, his own Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) parliamentarians sought clarification. They said, like him, they also wanted to take their own decisions over their political future. He denied he made those claims at the Cabinet though he said so. The MPs, 23 of them, signed a formal request that he should be their presidential candidate. The idea was to remain one entity. Sirisena agreed to make an official announcement that he would be the SLFP presidential candidate. It never came. These MPs are now furious.

Fourth: President Sirisena wanted to conduct a non-binding referendum to seek public views to conduct the general elections first. The scheduled presidential election was to follow. Last Sunday, just after he returned from his visit to Tajikistan, he took note of these columns where the issue was widely reported. Earlier, he had consulted several political leaders over the matter. That included Opposition Leader Mahinda Rajapaksa as revealed last week. As said last week, Attorney General Dappula de Livera had opined that there was no impediment to conducting a non-binding referendum. He was empowered to do so. However, as his private legal advisors pointed out, he had no constitutional right to dissolve Parliament to facilitate parliamentary elections. That was the bitter lesson Sirisena learnt when he dissolved Parliament in October last year. The Supreme Court held it was unconstitutional. He did not want to make another mistake.

He had changed his mind. He asked his party General Secretary Dayasiri Jayasekera to announce he would not go ahead with the proposed non-binding referendum. “There has been discussion on calling a referendum. Though the President has the power, it is practised as a non-binding one. The President does not have the power to dissolve Parliament,” Jayasekera told a news conference at the SLFP office in Darley Road on Tuesday. He added, “Everyone from the opposition including us called for parliamentary elections. The request was also made jointly by the SLFP and the SLPP.” This gamble also failed.

Fifth: President Sirisena on Wednesday told the SLFP Women’s Front at a meeting at the party’s Darley Road headquarters that there would be an “honourable decision which will not cause injustice or embarrassment to the party or its supporters” over the presidential poll. He dismissed prospects of a major three-cornered tussle (at the presidential poll) and said it would be between two main contenders. Interesting enough, the usual news release of his speech was not released. A Presidential Media Division source said they were under instructions not to distribute the full text. A senior SLFPer, who did not wish to be named, claimed that it was to prevent the party parliamentarians from being annoyed again. That is for saying one thing at the Cabinet and another to the party women’s group. He is worried it would again upset the MPs, the senior said. President Sirisena’s remarks to the Women’s Front came after groups of those present said he should continue to give leadership to the country. He was evidently buoyed by that call.

Nevertheless, why should he have second thoughts in publicising a speech he already made? Or has he also realised that he had done so prematurely? Whatever the answers are, a closer focus in the wake of his four failed efforts listed above, the fifth does highlight some interesting aspects. One, a logical deduction, is that he entertains thoughts of not contesting this year’s presidential election. That would make it a contest between two major sides, the UNP-backed United National Front (UNF) and the predominant Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP)-backed opposition.

The prospects of Sirisena backing the UNP are very bleak if not out of the question. His relationship with Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe has turned very bitter and apparently irreconcilable. That this has led to serious stumbling blocks in governance and contradictory positions is all too well known. In this backdrop, it is no secret Sirisena has been supportive of Deputy Leader Sajith Premadasa, who is being backed by a section of the party. Yet, a declaration of public support for Premadasa’s candidacy by Sirisena can spell political disaster for the former. Most of his backers do not like the idea for fear of losing the elections. They worry that they will lose considerable grassroots level support. On the other hand, Ranil Wickremesinghe is still a strong contender and wants to remain in the fray.

He still retains control of the Working Committee, the UNP’s main policymaking body which would have to decide on a candidate. Speaker Karu Jayasuriya, the other front runner, has placed a condition – he would contest if the party wants him. Some civil society groups and even western missions are backing him. With UNP Chairman Kabir Hashim taking his oaths as Minister ignoring the advice of his colleague Malik Samarawickrema to inform the leader (Wickremesinghe), divisions in the party are widening. This week, Justice Minister Thalatha Atukorale, a Wickremesinghe loyalist for long years, declared she would back Premadasa as the presidential candidate. She vowed to seek her leader’s support for this. Whether the Premier will make way for Premadasa, who has been blowing hot sometime and cold at other times, remains unlikely if not impossible. For these and other reasons, mending fences for Sirisena with the UNP is a tough task, one that is almost insurmountable.

That leaves him with only one choice – form an SLFP-SLPP common alliance and support it. Contrary to all the speculation, former Defence Secretary Gotabaya Rajapaksa will be the opposition’s presidential candidate. He is recuperating in Singapore after open heart surgery. Doctors have declared he would be fit for a less arduous polls campaign. Gotabaya Rajapaksa still awaits the formal renunciation of his US citizenship. Of course, the de facto SLPP leader Mahinda Rajapaksa has said repeatedly that an official decision of the party’s presidential candidate is yet to be made. He repeated this assertion in recent interviews with foreign publications.

Formally, the opposition candidate for the presidential election will be announced at the annual convention of the SLPP that will be held at 2 p.m. on August 11 at the Sugathadasa Indoor Stadium. On this occasion, Mahinda Rajapaksa will also take over as the Leader of the SLPP. Basil Rajapaksa, the architect behind the SLPP chaired three different meetings on Friday in this regard. The first was with the party MPs, the second with serving and former Provincial Councillors and the third with local council members.

Interesting enough, President Sirisena’s

remarks to the SLFP’s women members have already resonated at the highest levels of the SLPP. Opposition Leader Mahinda Rajapaksa has been spending time consulting not only constituent leaders of parties in the opposition but also his own party stalwarts. The consensus – one of them explained – “is to accept Sirisena’s support though we may lose a few votes here and there” but added “a lot of things have to be sorted out first.” On Thursday, Mahinda Rajapaksa met a group of partner leaders of the opposition and there was a discussion on the “hostile attitude” of SLFP General Secretary Jayasekera. Two of the SLPP critics were C.B. Ratnayake and Keheliya Rambukwella. They were among a group of MPs who were strongly critical of Jayasekera’s public utterances. Some were uncharitable and claimed he may “go back” to the UNP which he quit.

Leaders of opposition partner parties and those in the SLPP decided on Thursday that they would give Mahinda Rajapaksa the mandate to decide who he should invite to ensure they win the presidential election. He has now been empowered to take suitable decisions in this regard. Sirisena’s entry as a strong player in a joint opposition common alliance if it materialises, has both good and bad forebodings. The good is that he will, under some format to be designed, remain in politics and continue to play an important role if the opposition presidential candidate is elected. It will also ensure the security and well being of Sirisena and his family. The bad side -Sirisena’s move may sound the death knell of the SLFP. The fact that the SLFP has no other presidential candidate is one thing. More importantly, some of the remaining parliamentarians of the emaciated party have continued to have back channel talks with either the SLPP or the UNP to join their ranks if they could become candidates at a parliamentary election. The first to knock at the door are members of the now defunct Provincial Councils and even those who are still serving.

In such an event, a question that looms large is whether it would see the re-entry of onetime President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga. She is now patron of the SLFP and is known to have privately remarked to friends and colleagues that the party should not be allowed to die. Yet, how many of the current SLFP parliamentarians would remain, for fear of losing positions and perks that go with it?

Like the four efforts from President Sirisena’s Wish List that did not materialise, the fifth may turn futile too, but the abiding feature is the willingness of the two sides to continue talking. This is notwithstanding deep suspicions on the SLPP side over some of the utterances of SLFP General Secretary Dayasiri Jayasekera. One was his comments at a news conference on Tuesday that should Gotabaya Rajapaksa become President, the Cabinet would have seven family members. In what seemed a plea to pick on Sirisena as the presidential candidate, he said “we have not come to a decision to contest alone.”

Jayasekera made a numerical argument at the news conference – in the local elections of February 2018, the SLPP polled 5 million votes, the UNP 6.5 million and the UPFA around 1.4 million votes. “The presidential candidate needs 6 million to 6.5 million votes and that is why we say the two sides should get together,” he pointed out. In painting this backdrop, Dayasiri seems to make a stronger logical case for Sirisena. The President has already asked the Attorney General’s Department to expedite cases that include those concerning Gotabaya Rajapaksa – a pressure tactic which he believes would compel the SLPP to re-consider his case for presidential candidature. However, it will not change the course of events the party has traversed so far. With that as a benchmark, the two sides may agree on politically acceptable position for Sirisena.

The SLFP–SLPP talks last Monday were called off

after Thilanga Sumathipala (SLFP) sent a letter to Dullas Allahapperuma (SLPP). He asked “Can we re fix the date between June 25 and 28?” The SLPP agreed for the talks to be held on June 25. The SLPP had already made a detailed study of the draft constitution presented at their previous round of talks by Nimal Siripala de Silva, the senior deputy leader of the SLFP. The next step that was planned for one person from each side to function in a Committee to study the draft and submit their recommendations. Once the SLFP and the SLPP agree to the Constitution, the latter is to negotiate with its other partners to be a party to it. There is already consensus on the matter.

In the fast-changing political climate, exacerbated to a large degree by the Eastern Sunday attacks by IS-backed Muslim extremists, uncertainty remains a key factor. However, President Sirisena appears to have resigned to the fact that he will rather not be a presidential candidate. That is with the support of the 24 SLFP parliamentarians and a few others who have vowed to back him. He knows only too well that a defeat stares him in the face. Like our World Cup cricket team members, he has played many an innings not checkmating the opposition but his own partner in governance, the UNP. In this open-ended game, he has been stumped many a time and bowled over, Yet, he has not been able to get the UNP team out altogether though he can make strong claims for being the Man of the Match for staying at the crease for so long.

On the other hand, for the UNP (albeit the UNF), the great spin bowler and adept batsman that he is, Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe has withstood President Sirisena’s googlies. Many of his other players now want to Captain the team and the marketing campaigns have begun. That is the political World Cup in Sri Lanka though the spectators or the voters wait in awe for the elections to see who will score most. It is not an easy challenge for any one of them.