Digital disruption and meeting decent work for all - is it in the algorithm?
Self-driving cars, fully automated factories, and AI-powered virtual assistants on smartphones. It was not so long ago that such technologies were confined to science fiction. Today, they are part of everyday global consumer brands such as Apple, Adidas, Google, IBM, Microsoft, Samsung, and Tesla. These technologies are also a telling sign of the Fourth Industrial Revolution ( 4IR). Perhaps its’ most important ramification concerns work. As with the previous industrial revolutions, the 4IR will disrupt existing industries, pushing some into obsoletion while offering others new opportunities. The question is not if, but when.
While there is real uncertainty about how many jobs will be affected, there is far more certainty about the types of jobs that will be affected. Some suggest that over 40 per cent of jobs in advanced economies could be automated within the next couple of decades. In developing countries, that could be more than 60 per cent as 4IR technologies spread at increasing speeds. But these numbers are still contested and there is little consensus on the precise scope of impact. But it is increasingly clear that whatever the impact, it will mostly affect routine or repetitive work, which is the easiest to replicate with software or robotics.
A closer look reveals that such automated routine work may have disproportionate effects on workers. High skilled workers could become more productive as the more monotonous parts of their jobs are automated. But low skilled workers have a lot more to lose. Thus, if AI were to take over routine banking operations, a banker could focus more on customer relations or developing new financial services; but if AI were to enable self-driving cars, drivers could find themselves unemployable. The question of losses and gains is only one of the many questions that need answers.
Plus, it is also not merely about just economic growth and creating economic opportunities. It is also about economic and social inclusivity and justice. Will these new modalities introduced by the 4IR create opportunities and be accessible to those who have been historically marginalised? Will their work lives be transformed or stay the same?
In Sri Lanka, the apparel industry provides some valuable insights as to what maybe the future of work. As part of a global value chain, it is exposed to disruptive technologies enabled by the 4IR. In a recent qualitative study that looked at the impact of automation on work, CEPA ( Centre for Poverty Analysis) found that the industry has embraced automation to compete with rivals and build a niche for itself in the global marketplace. In doing so, the industry (BOI registered enterprises) managed to increase exports more than three-fold between 2000- 2014, while employment in the same timeframe has stayed between 250,000 - 300,000.
To aid with this development, the state and the industry also invested in training and capacity building that emphasised technology development, engineering and innovation in the apparel sector. Thus pointing to the important synergy with education, as central to the growth of the industry. These jobs that favour knowledge, innovation, non-routine cognitive functions are in demand and have resulted in higher value addition and have aided the industry.
However, this is where achieving inclusivity meets a hurdle. Even in Sri Lanka with high literacy, and high school enrolment, 24 per cent of children from poor households leave school at the ages of 15 – 16. This typically does not provide adequate foundational skills to get to the more sophisticated technical jobs. Again looking at the apparel sector we find that at the lower end of the employment scale, a factory worker, is joining with O’Level results or less and quite often have fallen on hard times. For them it is not a choice as much as a necessity. There are also more women in these low skilled jobs in the apparel sector. The access to reskilling or other job options are also limited due to gender norms and care responsibilities. Therefore, the ability to provide better skilling at the lower end, to push people towards more quality employment is a stiff challenge.
While the world becomes more hi-tech and revolutionises production processes, opening up the job market, these are still taking place within the boundaries of structural barriers such as discriminatory gender norms, inter-generational poverty, unequal access to relevant and quality education and training. Furthermore, issues of trade negotiations, employment terms and standards are all part and parcel of decent jobs. Thus in the quest for decent work for all, in the age of digital revolution, the need to incorporate good working conditions into the algorithm is a need of the hour. ( Karin Fernando is a senior researcher at CEPA and Navam Niles is a CEPA associate)