Covid -19 Virus to end by 1st August: our task !
The month of April was undoubtedly was one of the toughest times we have been faced with our lives. Challenged to get our basic food to the table from fresh vegetables, bread and meats. Not been able to go to office or step out of the home. Having a question mark on the person bringing the groceries, not been able to visit our parents and friends has pressured our life.
Service above self
However, some of us live on the ethos “Service above self ‘, ventured out and got a permit to get back to work. This attitude enabled us to keep the people who work in our offices to continue with their lives.
Leaving aside the emotions surrounding the Covid 19 virus, if we look at the hard data, last years’s GDP growth was around 2.3% but the companies we served had a good year with volume growths of around twenty percent.
Hence the Central Bank estimate for 2020, for Sri Lanka to be at 1.5% GDP means that the downward swing cannot have such ramifications that many envisaged at the outset of the pandemic. This statement will hold ground unless the CBSL data is flawed. Even if we take the World Bank forecast at -0.3% for this year means that Sri Lanka technically cannot see a major swing.
Hammer and Dance
The theory of ‘Hammer and Dance’, with the use of intelligence in a country identifies the clusters where the Covid-19 virus is propagating and goes in for a lockdown of 21 days, 35 day of 49 day models to trace and test so that management of the situation is possible. It is said that Israel has demonstrated the best in using this technique and now Sri Lanka has mastered this.
Research reveals that once the virus spread is curtailed by the ‘ Hammer’ approach, the curfew is subsequently relaxed to allow the economy to dancemeaning to allow the companies to work and get the economy to kick start again.
Money or bodies
Whilst the theory of Hammer and Dance may sound interesting in the Management of an economy threatened by the lethal virus - Covid 19, one of the most difficult decisions that leaders of the world will have to make is when does a country relax the LOCKDOWN and allow the economy to get started. It is very sad but the ultimate decision will be based on the maths of a country. Meaning, if a country is open for business like what we see in the United States, the economy will function but the bodies also pile up. Which is is why the US President is estimating 300,000 people to die from the Covid 19 virus when the current deaths are are only at 78,300. The US president has the power to go for a total lock down and save life’s of people in the United States but then the economy will sink. Which is why President Trump has decided to balance the “number of Bodies whilst allowing the economy to continue functioning. It’s the most toughest decision a leader has to make for the people of that respective country.
If we go to brutal statistics the US fatality rate is at 7% whilst India it is at 3.7% and Sri Lanka at at below 1%. Hence, if one wants to predict the deaths in Sri Lanka an algorithm can be computed based on the current spread as at today. The essence is who will be in the number that adds up to the 1% will be the million dollar question. Our Task:
1) Maintain 1 meter distance
This may be tough but consciously we must maintain a 1 meter distance. It’s a very tough task as our culture likes talking at close proximity and we like to pat a person on the back especially when we want to show commaradie amond team members. But we must get into the new normal.
2) Wash your hands
Before we enter the place of work wash your hands or sanitize. Any soap can be used provided you wash the hand for 20 seconds
3) Don’t share food and drinks 5) Avoid team meetings
There is nothing wrong in having team meetings but have skype, zoom, microsoft team or just a WhattsApp call than getting together at a board room for the usual meeting. Let’s accept this Covid-19 is lethal and very contagious, even though Sri Lanka has not got a strong attack like the US or Italy.
6) Wear a mask
There is no need to be heroic. Wear a mass at work and in public places. It’s best to protect than be sorry.
What next
To wrap up. No one knows how the future will pan out for Sri Lanka. All I know is that each of us have a key task - ‘ protect peoples lives’. We must move our organizations to a ‘Covid -19 controlled environment’. Rotary has set the stage by driving pilot projects in diversed economic sectors together with Sri Lanka Standards Institute( SLSI). Let’s remodel as the world has changed. It will never go back to the original entity it was.
The author is the CEO of regional Artificial Intelligence( AI) company for Sri Lanka, Maldives and Pakistan. The thoughts are strictly his personal views.